Midwest Crop Tour Final

21 Aug 2015

By Katie Micik
DTN Markets Editor

OMAHA (DTN) -- The 2015 Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour estimates a U.S. corn yield of 164.3 bushels per acre and a soybean yield of 46.5 bpa. Both of these are lower than the USDA's latest estimates, 168.8 bpa and 46.9 bpa, respectively.

These yields equate to 2015 corn production of 13.323 billion bushels and soybean production of 3.887 billion bushels.

The corn estimate has a +/- 1% margin of error, creating a range of 13.456 billion bushels to 13.190 bb, according to Tweets from Chip Flory, manager of the western leg of the tour.

The soybean estimate has a +/- 2% margin of error, creating a range of 3.965 billion bushels to 3.809 billion bushels, Flory tweeted.

THURSDAY'S UPDATE

Farmers across the Corn Belt tuned into this week's Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour, watching to see if Iowa and Minnesota could pick up Indiana and Ohio's slack.

The tour's Iowa average corn yield was 3 bushels per acre shy of USDA's estimate, while Minnesota's was 6 bpa higher.

Scouts estimated Iowa's corn crop would average 180.25 bushels per acre, compared to 178.75 bpa last year and the three-year average of 162.65 bpa. The pod count averaged 1,219 pods in a 3-foot-by-3-foot square, compared to last year's estimate of 1,173.6 pods and the 3-year average of 1,033.6 pods.

In Minnesota -- widely considered to be this year's garden spot -- the average corn yield was 190.9 bpa. Its corn crop averaged 170.76 bpa last year and 169.35 bpa over three years. Soybean pod counts were 1,119.2, compared to 1,031.5 bpa last year and the 3-year average of 945.1.

For a breakdown of all the state's estimates and comparisons to USDA, please see the table at the bottom of the story.

Richard Guse, a Minnesota farmer and scout on the tour's eastern leg, said even though Iowa's estimate is similar to last year, he thinks the crop is smaller. Deep kernels and heavy ear weights helped propel last year's crop to a record, but he thinks kernels are average size this year.

"The crop is actually smaller because the kernels aren't as big," he said, adding the crop tour's yield formula doesn't account for kernel depth or test weight. "I truly believe USDA is a little high. It's not a huge difference, but it's probably in the 4 bushel area, maybe 5 bushel at the most."

Scouts polled individually coalesced around an expectation that USDA will lower its yield estimate by 3 to 5 bpa. USDA estimated the national average corn yield at 168.8 bpa and the soybean yield at 46.9 bpa.

Guse thinks USDA is closer to the money on soybeans, but could be a bushel or two too high. Most of the scouts agreed there's little to quibble about on the bean yield. One scout said it's one of the best looking bean crops he's seen on the western leg of the tour.

"Rain doesn't always make grain, nor does really tall plants. And that stands true for both," he said. On Guse's route through Iowa and Minnesota fields on Thursday, he noticed some of the 14-foot tall fields looked excellent from the roadside, but the ears were smaller than they expected. Iowa's average grain length declined from last year.

On soybeans, scouts observed that the tallest, bushiest beans were poorly podded.

Scouts got into more corn fields planted in 20- and 15-inch rows than in years past. The western leg pulled several very high yielding samples from fields with tighter row widths. One in Pipestone County, Minnesota, estimated a field at 324 bpa. They pulled a second sample to double check, and the yield estimate increased to 354 bpa.

AGRONOMIC OVERVIEW

Beyond yield, part of the allure of the crop tour is studying the crop. Although scouts are often guessing at what might have happened in each field, corn and sometimes soybeans can tell a story upon observation.

This year was a study in contrasts. The western tour was a tale of consistency while the eastern tour found fields filled with extreme variability.

Still, overall, plant health of the 2015 crop tour was amazingly solid given the wet conditions that plagued many of the regions early.

"We planted wet and we know it, said Roger Cervene, a Stanton, Iowa, farmer and scout on the tour. Cervene explained that late planting and prolonged wet and cool temperatures have taken some of the upside out of potential corn and soybean yields in that area. Wet holes and nitrogen deficiencies were apparent in the rolling Loess Hills region. "We didn't have much choice if we were going to get the crop in in. You have to do what you can."

Leaf diseases -- northern corn leaf blight, gray leaf spot and some Goss's Wilt -- were reported in corn across most of the Midwest sampling area.

Going into harvest, there is some concern about corn stalk quality given the shallow root systems and tall plants that have extremely high ear set. Hail damage was noted in a few regions in South Dakota and Iowa. Nitrogen deficiency was found in nearly every field in the east. It's going to be a problem as we move into harvest as the plant cannibalizes itself.

Waterhemp is the weed to watch. Clean fields lined up next to those filled with the willful amaranth species and served as a testimony to the power of selecting the correct pre-emergence residual herbicide and timely post sprays.

Today in Minnesota, scouts emerged from some cornfields crawling with corn aphids. The state has struggled with soybean aphid issues and there was some bean leaf beetle and Japanese beetle feeding evident. Grasshoppers were feeding on field edges in Nebraska.

Soybeans that were planted early have grown really tall this year, favoring white mold problems below the heavy canopy. Sudden death syndrome has started to show up in pockets throughout the Midwest. Some scouts were surprised that SDS was not more prevalent. However, new seed treatments to help control SDS were released this year and could be helping to hold back the disease.

IOWA

Scouts in Iowa saw some of the better crops on the tour. The crop was refreshingly consistent compared to the highly variable crops scouts saw on the eastern leg. Many routes averaged more than 200 bpa on corn. Many scouts thought they'd see a crop that was comparable to last year, but instead they found a typical Iowa crop. Not amazing, but darn good.

ILLINOIS

Illinois was a tale of two crops, depending on where in the state scouts sampled. Eastern Illinois showed more stand variability and denitrification, but its soybeans also bounced back from June's rains. Corn improved in western parts of the state.

INDIANA

Scouts overall thought Indiana's corn was some of the roughest they saw. Severe denitrification, widely variable maturities within individual fields and very late planted soybeans topped the list of scouts' concerns. Many routes observed tile being laid in this year's prevent plant fields, and it was one of the states where they saw the most of it.

OHIO

Ohio saw many of the same issues as Indiana, but the over yield estimate was a little stronger. Bill Bayliss, who farms in Ohio, said he's looking at a tough harvest season. Moisture levels are likely to differ within the field when they harvest, and Bayliss said it will be a more challenging year to store corn on the farm.

NEBRASKA

While scouts didn't quite find the yields predicted, the crop was still strong. The surprise was dry land yields were nearly comparable to those pulled on irrigated acres. Soybean numbers were big and recent rainfalls should help push numbers.

SOUTH DAKOTA

Consistency was the name of the game. South Dakota yield estimates were in line with expectations, and the tour estimated its average yield higher than USDA. It's on its way to a record crop in the state.

PRO FARMER MIDWEST CROP TOUR RESULTS
----------- CORN -----------
STATE	2015	2014	3 YR AVG	USDA
SD	165.94	152.71	129.57	160
OH	148.37	182.10	154.75	168
NE	165.16	163.70	150.16	187
IN	142.94	185.00	155.21	158
IL	171.64	196.96	163.01	172
IA	180.25	178.80	162.65	183
MN	190.87	170.80	169.35	184
----------- SOYBEANS -----------
STATE	2015	2014	3 YR AVG	USDA
SD	1,054.98	1,057.80	886.47	45
OH	1,125.26	1,342.40	1,219.92	48
NE	1,220.02	1,103.30	1,045.54	56
IN	1,092.08	1,220.80	1,146.39	49
IL	1,190.47	1,299.00	1,119.73	53
IA	1,219.21	1,174.00	1,033.56	52
MN	1,119.22	1,032.00	945.10	48