DTN Midday Grain Comments 09/10 11:20

DTN Midday Grain Comments 09/10 11:20 Grains Trading Higher at Midday Trade is higher across the board at midday with position squaring ahead of the report. By David Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst General Comments The U.S. stock markets indices are higher at midday with the Dow futures up 30 points. The interest rate products are mostly higher. The dollar index is 45 points lower. Energies are higher with crude up $0.90. Livestock trade is mostly lower. Precious metals are higher with gold up $9. CORN Corn trade is 2 to 4 cents higher at midday following the lead of soybeans and wheat. The weekly ethanol production report was also supportive with ethanol production 1.05% higher on the week, with stocks down 1.89%. We have a big Friday with the monthly USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates ("WASDE") due out and then a big month ahead with good harvest activity expected by the October WASDE. Looking to Friday the average trade guess is for a 167.6 bushels per acre yield with a range of 166-170.5 versus the 168.8 August number. The average trade guess for total production is at 13.595 billion with a range of 13.47 to 13.87 billion. The new crop carryover estimate is 1.645 billion bushels versus 1.713 a month ago. The world carryover is expected to be at 193.5 million metric ton versus 195.1 last month. Position squaring should dominate trade the next 24 hours, at midday shorts appear to be taking profits ahead of the report. The weekly export sales are delayed to Friday due to the holiday on Monday. On the December chart support is at the low from last week at $3.60 and then the contract low at $3.57. Resistance is at the $3.73 20-day moving average then the $3.86 high printed two weeks ago. The market is flirting with the 20-day here at midday. SOYBEANS Soybean trade is 2 to 5 cents higher at midday with trade hanging just below resistance levels. Meal is flat to $1 lower, and oil is 30 to 40 points higher. The export sales have been quieter this week with only one on the daily reporting so far this week. Looking to Friday the trade is expecting the USDA to come out with a 46.4 bushel per acre yield versus the 46.9 number seen last month; the range of trade guesses is 45.4 to 47.1. Most believe the weather has been good enough the past month to keep the yield number steady but the areas too wet early still have many looking for the USDA August number to be the highest of the year. The crop estimate is at 3.87 billion bushels versus 3.916 last month. The world carryover is expected to be at 86.2 million metric ton versus 86.9 last month. So no major changes are expected, the big supplies, expected increase in South American plantings and slower than a year ago export sales pace continue to favor the bears. Most market bulls believe the yield number will come down. We hit new contract lows at $8.55 after the bearish August report; this level remains key support. On the November chart the 20-day at $8.86 is key resistance versus the $8.85 3/4 daily high this week. WHEAT Wheat trade is 5 to 9 cents higher at midday across the three contracts with support from the weaker dollar and firmer row crop trade. Weak fundamentals and chart pressure will continue to limit upside, some profit taking by shorts makes sense here ahead of the report. Winter wheat planting is just around the corner which could trigger a bit of a rally to secure acres as well with rains in the west limiting enthusiasm in the near term. Looking to Friday the average trade guess is for the wheat carryover to be at 865 million bushels versus 850 on the August report. The world carryover is expected to be in line with the large 221.5 million metric ton carryover seen on the August report. Chart resistance for the December Kansas City contract is at the $4.78 10-day moving average. Support is at the $4.65 3/4 fresh contract low reached Friday. David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered trading adviser. David Fiala can be reached at [email protected] Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala (BAS) Copyright 2015 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.