DTN Midday Grain Comments 09/11 12:15

DTN Midday Grain Comments 09/11 12:15 Grains Mixed at Midday Corn is higher at midday, beans lower, in reaction to the USDA yield adjustments. By David Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst General Comments The U.S. stock markets indices have been mixed, at midday we are slightly higher with the Dow futures up 30 points. The interest rate products are higher. The dollar index is 24 points lower. Energies are lower with crude down $1. Livestock trade is sharply lower. Precious metals are lower with gold down $8. CORN Corn trade is 5 cents higher in post report trade; the trading range has been from around a dime lower to a dime higher all reached in less than a ten minute period around the report. The weekly export sales were disappointing with -146,900 metric tons of old crop, with 411,200 of new crop which was noted for the lower pre-report trade. The USDA corn yield came in at 167.5 bushels per acre versus 166.6 expected and 168.8 on the August report. The domestic carryover came in at 1.592 billion bushels versus 1.713 on the last report giving the friendly news to the market which is behind our higher midday trade. The global carryover was at 189.7 million metric tons versus 194 expected and 195.1 last month. On the December chart support is now at the $3.73 20-day which we traded above, then the $3.70 10-day, resistance is at $3.86, our late August high, then the 100-day moving average at $3.91. SOYBEANS Soybean trade is 3 to 5 cents lower in post report trade saw a quick 25 cent range around the report but is now back into the trading range we saw most of the morning. Meal is around $1 higher and bean oil down 50 points with spillover pressure from crude. The weekly export sales were strong at 1.79 million metric tons of new crop; meal was 152,300 metric tons combined old and new crop and 6,600 of soybean oil. This limited downside this morning. The USDA gave both friendly and negative items on the report with the yield number going up to 47.1 bushels per acre versus 46 expected and 46.9 on the August report. The crop size was at the high side estimate of 3.935 billion bushels and only 34 million away from the record 2015 production. The soybean new crop carryover came in at 450 million bushels versus 470 last month and an average trade guess of 415. The global carryover was at 84.98 million metric tons versus 86.9 last month and 86.5 expected. November beans reached a new contract low less than two cents below the level reached a month ago. This low at $8.53 1/4 is now chart support with resistance at the $8.75 10-day then $8.84 20-day. Momentum is flat to higher at midday but trade near the close could still get active. Generally when you reach a new contract low and quickly bounce back it could generate short profit taking. WHEAT Wheat trade is mixed at midday with spillover direction from the row crops. The weekly export sales were disappointing at 290,400 metric tons, which have limited upside. The USDA 2015-16 domestic carryover came in at 875 million bushels versus 860 expected and 850 million last month. The global carryover came in at 226.56 million metric ton, which was above the 221.7 expected and 221.5 August number. The supply and demand trend remains bearish for wheat, but wheat is oversold here. Chart resistance for the December Kansas City contract is at the $4.87 20-day moving average. Support is at the $4.65 3/4 contract low reached last Friday. David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered trading adviser. David Fiala can be reached at [email protected] Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala (BAS) Copyright 2015 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.