DTN Midday Grain Comments 04/04 11:52

DTN Midday Grain Comments 04/04 11:52 Grains Lower at Midday Grain trade is mostly lower at midday. By David Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst General Comments The U.S. stock market indices are flat to lower with the Dow futures down 15 points. The interest rate products are higher. The dollar index is 5 lower. Energies are lower with crude down $0.40. Livestock trade is narrowly mixed. Precious metals are lower with gold down $2. CORN Corn trade is flat to 2 cents lower at midday in slow trade; futures were down over 3 cents overnight. Nearby futures were down over 15 cents last week and new contract lows were printed, giving many the idea the bearish items are priced-in. Last week the acreage number was a shocker, since, the market has been putting balance sheets together trying to figure out how we can increase usage to keep the carryover from moving up around 2.2 billion bushels. The first USDA 2016-17 balance sheets should be close to this number due to plugging in the higher plantings at trendline yields. The weekly export inspections were good coming in just over 1 million tons; this helped limit losses. The USDA first aggregate weekly progress numbers are expected this afternoon. On the May chart support is at the fresh low at $3.47 1/4 with the 10-day at $3.64 resistance. SOYBEANS Soybean trade is 4 cents lower at midday, meal is off $3 and bean oil is up 15 points. Overnight the market saw new highs for the move, but at midday it appears we have ran out of steam. The trade has been talking about larger soybean acreage due to the market movement last week following the friendly USDA numbers for beans. The overall global and domestic comfortable supply side situation was not threatened by the USDA, so fundamental buyers are not expected this week with nearby means trading up at five-month highs. The weekly export inspections were low at 204,974 tons. On the May soybean chart we remain above all the major moving averages. Support is at the $9.04 200-day moving average which is the highest major moving average. Resistance is the $9.22 high reached overnight followed by the seven-month high at $9.29 1/4. WHEAT Wheat trade is 3 to 5 cents lower at midday with limited fresh news or weather concerns. The USDA provided some friendly news last week with the lower than expected planted acreage number. The problem is that does not necessarily mean a drop in the carryover from this crop year to 2016-17. The export component to our usage is a very important part to the yearly total, and the large global supplies has keep our exports low, price ralies would be expected to keep exports low. The weekly export inspections were neutral at 318,348 tons. Production problems, serious ones, are needed at this juncture in 2016 to help wheat confirm longer term lows were printed a month ago. On the May Kansas City chart the 50-day moving average at 4.71 remains support after we moved back above it last week. With the recent highs at $4.90 chart David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered trading adviser. David Fiala can be reached at [email protected] Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala (BAS) Copyright 2016 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.