DTN Midday Grain Comments 05/08 11:25

DTN Midday Grain Comments 05/08 11:25 All Grains Lower at Midday Trade is modestly lower at midday with light downward momentum. By David Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst General Comments The U.S. stock market indices are lower with the Dow futures 25 lower. The interest rate products are lower. The dollar index is 45 higher. Energies are mixed with crude down 0.10. Livestock trade is mostly higher. Precious metals are mixed with gold $1.90 higher. CORN Corn trade is 4 cents lower at midday due to light follow-through selling and limited fresh friendly weather news. The weekly export inspections this morning were disappointing at 720,586 metric tons. Ethanol margins should be stable to start the week but got hit the past few weeks which is negative for corn prices. The energy complex tracking sideways but remains near the 1-year lows; the June crude contract low is around $36 printed last January to a high of $58 printed on January 3rd versus our $46 midday market. Corn basis is expected to remain steady to firm this week with farmers getting back in the fields. More wet weather could keep shipping issues present in the Ohio and Mississippi Valleys. In the bigger picture the lower prices and wet start to the planting season in areas will work against corn acres. The weekly crop progress report is expected to show planting near 45%, with emergence running around average. The July chart support was at the 200-day moving average at $3.69 which we are below at midday, so notable support the $3.60 3/4 4-month low. Resistance is at the $3.74 100-day moving average. SOYBEANS Soybean trade is 6 to 8 cents lower at midday with trade giving back some of the gains seen last week. Meal is $3.50 lower and bean oil is 10 to 20 points higher. Bean oil continues to provide support to beans, but ideas of greater soybean acres is weighing on trade. Soybean planting should make good progress in west this week. The weekly progress report should show average to slightly above average planting pace. The weekly export inspections were softer at 349,385 metric tons. Basis has remained fairly steady with good nearby demand. Strong movement and sales competition is expected to continue from South America. July soybean chart support is the 10-day at $9.66 which we are just below at midday, and the 20-day at 9.63, with resistance the 50-day at 9.88. WHEAT Wheat trade is 2 to 7 cents lower at midday with trade likely to chop around until we get a read on conditions this afternoon with Kansas City wheat finding the most support. Wet weather looks to linger for the storm damaged areas of the west, with cold air in the east. The Dakotas should have made good progress this week, reducing concerns about spring wheat. The Kansas wheat crop was pegged at 281 million bushels, down 170 million from last year. World weather will become more of an issue with Russia and Europe attracting more focus soon. The dollar is just below the 99 level on the index even with the solid rebound this morning. Weekly crop progress should show conditions down 3-4% on winter wheat, heading running near average, and spring wheat progress catching back up towards average. On the July Kansas City contract support is the 50-day at 4.48 which we got back over Friday which we are testing this morning, and the week low at $4.42 below that and the 200-day at 4.55 above that as resistance. David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered Advisor. David Fiala can be reached at [email protected] Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (BAS) Copyright 2017 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.