DTN Midday Grain Comments 05/11 11:14

DTN Midday Grain Comments 05/11 11:14 Grains Slightly Lower at Midday Wheat is mixed with the row crops lower in a slow session following the USDA monthly report yesterday. By David Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst General Comments The U.S. stock market indices are lower with the DOW futures down 90. The interest rate products are mostly higher. The dollar index is 8 lower. Energies are higher with crude up .65. Livestock trade is lower. Precious metals are higher with gold $5.80 higher. CORN Corn trade is 2 to 3 cents lower at midday with trade treading water after the positive market reaction yesterday. The weekly export sales were disappointing at 277,700 metric tons of old crop, and -55,100 of new. CONAB adding 1.3 million metric tons to Brazilian production this morning which is also noted for the lower trade after the friendly new crop world carryover number yesterday. It was listed at 195.27 million metric ton versus 208.8 expected. Old crop 2016/17 world carryover was at 223.90 million tons versus 223.7 expected. The domestic new crop carryover was at 2.11 billion bushels versus 2.111 expected. Old crop carryover came in at 2.295 billion versus 2.327 expected. So a little something for the bulls yesterday, but the market bears argue a little bit less that large supplies, is still a large fundamental supply side picture. The USDA yield number was 170.7 bushels per acre versus the 174.6 2016 yield. Due to the limited early plantings no one seems to be disagreeing with the yield; moving forward the weather and changing yield expectations should direct trade. Ethanol margins are narrower but the bouncing crude values should add some support going into the weekend. The July chart support is at the $3.60 3/4 4-month low. Resistance is at the $3.74 100-day moving average which is our daily high. SOYBEANS Soybean trade is 4 to 7 cents lower after CONAB bumped Brazilian production to 113 million metric tons, up from 110.2 last month along with bigger world numbers yesterday. Meal is $3 to $4 lower and soybean oil is flat to 10 points higher. The new crop domestic carryover came in at 480 million bushels versus 572 million expected; the export number was 100 million bushels greater than last year which was the largest item that led to the lower than expected carryover. The old crop domestic carryover was at 435 million versus 439. The world carryover was at 90.14 million metric ton versus 87.8 expected; this led to a higher than expected new crop world carryover at 88.81 million tons versus 87.4 expected. The weekly export sales were mixed at 381,400 metric tons of old crop, 70,000 of new crop, 137,400 of meal, and 29,000 of oil. July beans did rally all the way up to $9.89 after the numbers which is now major chart resistance with the 50-day at $9.84 nearby. Support is at the $9.68 10-day then the $9.65 20-day moving average which we are just below at midday. We're still fearful of lower prices from large acres moving forward. WHEAT Wheat trade is a fractionally lower to 4 cents higher at midday with trade trying to consolidate in the lower end of the recent range. The domestic carryover came in at 1.159 billion bushels versus 1.162 billion expected on old, new crop was at 914 million versus 974 million expected. So something for the bulls yesterday that may generate more discussions about a longer term bottom in wheat this summer, but the global carryover estimates were still bearish. Old crop world carryover was at 255.35 million metric ton versus 252.20 expected: new crop was at 258.29 versus 244.4 expected. The all wheat production number was only 1.82 billion bushels versus 1.92 expected which was behind the friendly domestic carryover number. Warmer weather should help to advance crop maturity in the near term after the recent slow down. The weekly export sales were disappointing at -24,200 metric tons of old crop, and 273,400 of new, On the July Kansas City contract support is the daily low at $4.34 and the 50-day at 4.47 is resistance. David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered Advisor. David Fiala can be reached at [email protected] Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (BAS) Copyright 2017 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.