DTN Midday Grain Comments 07/13 11:35

DTN Midday Grain Comments 07/13 11:35 All Grains Lower at Midday Trade is sharply lower across the board at midday with a milder forecast and the trade weighing the large USDA carryovers. By David Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst General Comments The U.S. stock market indices are higher with the Dow futures up 20 points. The interest rate products are lower. The dollar index is 8 points higher. Energies are higher with crude up 0.65. Livestock trade is mostly higher. Precious metals are lower with gold down $2.30. CORN Corn trade is 9 cents lower at midday and we have been down 13; the low today on December is over 25 cents below the 1-year highs printed on Tuesday. Weather outlooks have heat moderating plus rain has been continuing to fall in the Corn Belt. The WASDE July report 24 hours ago had the new crop carryover at 2.325 billion bushels versus 2.131 billion expected. The yield was left unchanged at 170.7 bpa giving a production number of 14.255 billion. There will be some of the trade arguing that the yield is lower but ultimately this is July and yield is on the line with the weather at this juncture and the month ahead. The weekly export sales were disappointing this morning at 161,000 metric tons of old crop, and 279,900 of new crop which has contributed to our weakness. On the December chart support is at the $3.86 3/4 morning low with resistance the $3.93 20-day moving average then the $4 10-day. SOYBEANS Soybean trade is 26 to 28 cents lower at midday with selling on favorable forecasts and a correction from overbought market conditions. Meal is $11 to $12 higher and oil is 15 to 25 lower. On the July WASDE report the old crop carryout was 410 million bushels versus 434 million expected and 450 on the June report. The new crop came in at 460, which was below the average guess of 483 million bushels and the 495 million June number. The world new crop ending stocks were just above last month at 93.53 million metric tons. So the domestic carryover was friendly versus expectations but with the market pricing-in friendly items with the $1.40 rally buyers were limited on the USDA numbers. Weather should continue to be the market mover with the action the past three weeks ($1.40 range) likely going to keep the day to day trading ranges 15-25 cents as we move into the most important 6 weeks of soybean production weather next week. The weekly export sales were decent at 288,000 metric tons of old crop, 455,000 of new crop, 3,700 metric tons of old crop meal, 137,700 of new crop meal, and 16,200 of oil. On the November chart support is at the 10-day moving average at $9.99 with resistance at the $10.22. WHEAT Wheat trade is 23 to 26 cents lower at midday with the Minneapolis trade becoming the downside leader. The weekly export sales were soft at 357,700 metric tons. The 2017-18 domestic carryout came in at 938 million bushels, above the guess of 879 million bushels versus 924 on the June report. All wheat yield was at 47.2 bpa, with spring wheat harvest acreage left unchanged for now. The world wheat carryover was at 260.6 million metric tons versus expectations of 256.6. The large world supplies are continuing to pose problems for market bulls. On the December Kansas City contract support is the 20-day at $5.39 with the 10-day at $5.69 resistance. David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered Advisor. He can be reached at [email protected] Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (BAS) Copyright 2017 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.