DTN Midday Grain Comments 08/09 11:44

DTN Midday Grain Comments 08/09 11:44 Grain Trade Lightly Mixed at Midday Mixed pre-report trade is seen at midday ahead of the August WASDE; is is due out in 24 hours. By David Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst General Comments The U.S. stock market indices are lower with the Dow futures down 35 points. The interest rate products are higher. The dollar index is 3 points higher. Energies are mixed. Livestock trade is mixed with hogs higher and cattle lower. Precious metals are higher with gold up $16. CORN Corn trade is fractionally to a penny higher at midday; the December trading range has only been 2 1/2 cents. The weekly EIA numbers had stocks up 2.37% with ethanol production up 1% with gas demand down .46%. This has ethanol a penny lower at midday which is limiting upside. The August USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates ("WASDE") is due out at 11 am tomorrow. The action today looks to be simple position squaring with weather ideas mixed today. The trade is expecting a drop in the 2017 USDA yield and production stats. The average trade guess is for a 166 bushels per acre yield versus 170.7 last month giving a production umber of 13.841 billion bushels versus 14.255 a month ago. The range of yield estimates is 162.8-168.5. The average new crop carryover estimate is at 1.966 billion bushels versus 2.325 a month ago. The world carryover estimate is expected to be at 194.7 million metric ton versus 200.8 on the July report. On the December chart support is at the 10-day at $3.83 with resistance at the 200-day at $3.89. SOYBEANS Soybean trade is 1 to 2 cents lower at midday; the trading range has been from about 6 lower to 4 cents higher. Meal and soybean oil are narrowly mixed at midday. The 1% improvement in crop ratings on Monday afternoon took momentum out of the bounce; and it seems like the market is geared up for an exciting day on Thursday. The WASDE is expected to have a reduction in the soybean yield from 48 to 47.4 with a new crop carryover decline to 426 from the July 460 million bushel number; the range of estimates is 369-474 million. The world carryover is expected to drop to 92.2 million metric ton from the 93.5 million metric ton July number. Basis trade has remained steady to firm but overall soft for this time of year with the comfortable old crop stocks. On the November chart the 100-day and 50-day moving averages offer chart support at $9.66-68 then the $9.55 1/2 low printed last week below there. Resistance at the $9.81 10-day moving average then the 20-day at $9.93. WHEAT Wheat trade is 2 cents higher on the winter wheat contracts to 6 higher on Minneapolis. News is limited today with the trade ready to react to USDA changes; with some short covering / short profit evident on Minneapolis trade this week. The new crop U.S. trade guess for the August USDA WASDE carryover is 907 million bushels versus 938 million on the last report. The world wheat carryover average trade guess is at 256.7 million metric tons versus 260.6 mmt on the last report. On the December Kansas City contract support is the $4.85 August low with resistance at the 200-day at $4.94 then the 20-day at $5.09. David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered Advisor. He can be reached at [email protected] Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (BAS) Copyright 2017 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.