DTN Midday Grain Comments 08/10 10:55

DTN Midday Grain Comments 08/10 10:55 Light Mixed Grain Trade at Midday Soybeans are the upside leader in quiet pre-report trade at midday. By David Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst General Comments The U.S. stock market indices are lower with the Dow futures down 100 points. The interest rate products are higher. The dollar index is narrowly mixed. Energies are mixed with crude 0.40 lower. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are mixed with gold up $12.70. CORN Corn trade is 2 cents higher in quiet trade at midday ahead of the WASDE report at 11 a.m. central time. The near-term weather pattern in expected to continue. Ethanol margins have narrowed slightly but overall remain good. The trade is expecting a drop in the 2017 USDA yield and production stats. The average trade guess is for a 166 bushel-per-acre yield versus 170.7 bpa last month giving a production number of 13.841 billion bushels versus 14.255 bb a month ago. The range of yield estimates is 162.8-168.5. The average new crop carryover estimate is at 1.966 billion bushels versus 2.325 a month ago. The world carryover estimate is expected to be at 194.7 million metric ton versus 200.8 on the July report. The weekly export sales were mixed at 52,000 metric tons of old crop, 628,800 of new. On the December chart support is at the 10-day at $3.83 with resistance at the 20-day at $3.87 with the 200-day at $3.89 just above that. SOYBEANS Soybean trade is 6 to 10 cents higher at midday with trade working towards the upper end of the recent range ahead of the report. Meal is $1 to $2 higher and oil is 50 to 60 points higher. There are scattered rains falling in the western belt today but the market has some concern with overall August rain expected to be below normal with the extended forecast still fluctuating. The WASDE is expected to have a reduction in the soybean yield from 48 to 47.4 bushels per acre with a new crop carryover decline to 426 from the July 460 million bushel number; the range of estimates is 369-474 million. The world carryover is expected to drop to 92.2 million metric ton from the 93.5 million metric ton July number. Basis trade has remained steady to firm but overall soft for this time of year with the comfortable old crop stocks. Weekly export sales were decent at 45,000 metric tons of old crop, and 639,900 of new, with 6,000 of old-crop meal, 136,500 of new-crop meal, and 27,700 of oil. On the November chart, the 100-day and 50-day moving averages offer chart support at $9.66-68 then the $9.55 1/2 low printed last week below there. The first resistance level is at the $9.78 10-day moving average, which we are just above at midday then the 20-day at $9.93. WHEAT Wheat trade is mixed across the three contracts at midday with spring wheat leading in quiet action. The average trade guess for the August USDA WASDE 2017/18 carryover is 907 million bushels versus 938 on the July report. The world wheat carryover average trade guess is at 256.7 million metric tons versus 260.6 on the last report. The firmer dollar and European harvest pressure has helped to weigh on the market, while spring wheat harvest pressure is limited due to the poor crop. Export sales were mediocre at 464,300 metric tons. On the December Kansas City contract support is the $4.85 August low with resistance at the 200-day at $4.94 then the 20-day at $5.07. David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered Advisor. He can be reached at [email protected] Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (BAS) Copyright 2017 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.