DTN Midday Grain Comments 09/11 11:34

DTN Midday Grain Comments 09/11 11:34 Grains Lower at Midday Trade is lightly lower at midday. By David Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst General Comments The U.S. stock market indices are higher with the DOW futures up 210 points. The interest rate products are lower. The dollar index is 38 higher. Energies are mixed with crude up 0.20. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are mixed with gold down $12.50. CORN Corn trade is fractionally to a penny lower at midday; overnight up to midday trade has been two-sided ahead of the USDA numbers due out tomorrow. Early harvest progress should continue in the south of the belt with variable yields so far. The weekly export inspections were a little soft at 662,173 metric tons. Tomorrow morning we will see the monthly USDA September World Agricultural Supply and Demand (WASDE) numbers. The trade is looking for the 2017 production number to be at 14 billion bushels versus the 14.15 billion bushel August number; the range is 13.821 billion to 14.195. The average yield estimate is at 167.8 bushels per acre versus the 169.5 August USDA number; the range is 165.5-170. The 2017-18 Ending stocks estimate is at 2.133 billion bushels with a range of 1.898 to 2.323 billion. The world new crop stocks are expected to be at 198.2 million metric ton versus 200.9 on the August report. On the December chart support is the 10-day at $3.54, with the low at $3.44 1/4 below that. The 20-day at $3.59 is noted chart resistance. SOYBEANS Soybean trade is 2 to 4 cents lower at midday which has beans around a dime off the daily highs. Meal is $2 lower and bean oil is 1-5 points higher. Dry conditions continue to be a concern with the crop finishing early this month; some warmer dryer conditions are also okay for maturity. Ratings both for beans and corn are expected to be steady to down slightly which seasonally is expected. The weekly export inspections were strong at 1.106 million metric tons, and 352,000 metric tons were announced on the daily wire. The trade is looking for the USDA 2017 production tomorrow to be curbed down to 4.321 billion bushels versus the 4.381 billion bushel August number using a 48.7 yield versus the August USDA 49.4 number. The yield estimates are 47.1-49.8 bushels per acre. The average 2017-18 carryover estimate is 437 million bushels with a range of 325-540 million. The global carryover is expected to be at 97.3 million metric tons versus 97.8 on the August report. On the November chart support is the 10-day moving average at $9.53 with the 200-day at $9.81 major resistance. WHEAT Wheat trade is 3 to 8 cents lower across the board at midday with the KC contract leading action lower. The dollar is higher today but overall we just are not seeing exports pick up to give us a bull market. The weekly export inspections were at 446,957 metric tons. The biggest item to watch on the WASDE report will be a spring wheat production adjustment, especially on harvested acres. The average trade guess for the domestic carryover is 920 million bushels versus 933 on the August report. The world ending stocks are expected to be at 263.9 million metric tons versus 264.7 on the August report. On the December Kansas City contract support is at the $4.20 low resistance at the $4.39 20-day, then the $4.50 three-week high. David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered Advisor. He can be reached at [email protected] Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (BAS) Copyright 2017 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.