DTN Midday Grain Comments 11/09 10:50

DTN Midday Grain Comments 11/09 10:50 Grains Higher at Midday Mixed position squaring is seen ahead of the monthly USDA report. By David Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst General Comments The U.S. stock market is lower with the Dow futures down 118. The interest rate products are lower. The dollar index is 22 lower. Energies are mixed with crude up 0.20. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are narrowly mixed as well. CORN Corn trade is narrowly mixed at midday ahead of the WASDE report. The overnight up to midday trading range has been 1 1/2 cents lower to 1 1/2 higher. Outside markets have the dollar lower, stocks lower and crude near unchanged. Ethanol margins remain stable with the energy complex hanging near the upper end of the range. No major production changes are expected on the USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) due out at 11.The average trade guess is at 14.329 billion bushels versus 14.28 on the October report and 15.148 billion a year ago. The average trade carryover trade guess is at 2.365 with a range of 2.286 to 2.438 billion bushels versus the 2.34 billion October USDA number. The global carryover estimate is at 201.3 million metric ton versus 201 on the October report and 227 last year. The weekly export sales were above the already big expectations at 2.36 million metric tons of old crop, and 574,200 of new crop. The market needs a streak of these type of sales weeks to help the bull argument. On the December chart support is at the $3.42 1/2 low with resistance at the $3.51 50-day moving then the $3.58 six-week high. SOYBEANS Soybean trade is 2 to 3 cents higher at midday, meal is $2 higher and soybean oil is 2-5 points lower. Beans are going into the November WASDE in the upper end of our 3-month trading range with January beans just above $10 at midday. The average trade guess is for a 10-million-bushel drop in the carryover to 420 million bushels; the range of estimates is 375-460 million. Production is expected to be at 4.407 billion versus 4.431 on the October report. The yield estimate is at 49.3 versus 49.5. The world carryover is expected to be at 95.8 million metric tons versus 96.1 on the last report. The daily export wire has remained quiet this week so lower sales numbers will likely be expected on the report next week, but the weekly export sales report this morning was friendly with 1.16 million metric tons of beans, meal at 212,600 metric tons, and oil at 15,900 metric tons. On the January chart, the 200-day at $9.82 is support with trade above the 10-day and 20-day at $9.90-92, with the next resistance at $10.13, the three-month high. WHEAT Wheat trade is 3 to 5 cents higher at midday across the three contracts. Minneapolis trade has seen some excitement but we are around a dime below the daily highs at midday. The USDA WASDE report is expected to have the wheat carryover at 957 million bushels; the range of estimates is 940-980 million. The world carryover is expected to be at 267.2 million metric tons versus 268.1 on the October report ant 256.6 a year ago. The weekly export sales were good giving the market support; 781,700 tons of sales on the report this morning was a marketing year high! On the December Kansas City support is at the $4.28 20-day then the $4.13 1/2 low. Resistance is at the $4.36 50-day then the $4.60 3-month high. David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered Advisor. He can be reached at [email protected] Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (BAS) Copyright 2017 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.