DTN Midday Grain Comments 04/09 11:22

DTN Midday Grain Comments 04/09 11:22 All Grains Higher at Midday Wheat and beans are seeing double-digit gains with position squaring ahead of the monthly WASDE Report due out on Tuesday. By David Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst General Comments The U.S. stock market indices are higher with the Dow futures up 350 points. The interest rate products are higher. The dollar index is 22 points lower. Energies are firmer with crude up $1.40. Livestock trade is higher. Precious metals are steady to slightly higher. CORN Corn trade is 3 cents higher at midday with spillover support from beans and wheat, along with the higher crude and stock markets. Momentum is flat to higher with trade near the daily highs. Early fieldwork and planting looks to remain slow for the bulk of the belt with some warmer, or more normal, temperatures expected, but overall remain cooler than normal. The weekly export inspections were strong at 1.937 million metric tons giving midday strength. The USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) are due out tomorrow at 11a.m. CST. The report is expected to show a domestic carryover higher than last month due to the higher than expected March 1 Stocks numbers. The average guess is at 2.192 billion bushels versus 2.127 on the March report; the range of estimates is 2.05-2.265 billion. The world carryover is expected to be down 2 from last month at 197 million metric tons. Brazilian production is expected to be at 92.2 million metric tons versus 94.5 on the last report, with Argentine production expected to be at 33.5 versus 36 last month and 41 million metric ton last year. On the May chart we are back above the 20-day at $3.82 5/8 which is support with resistance the recent highs of $3.92 1/2 then the $3.95 1/4 8-month high. SOYBEANS Soybean trade is 10 to 16 cents higher at midday with old crop values leading with China returning from Holiday with stronger meal prices helping to lift the complex. Meal is $4 higher and oil is flat to 10 points lower. South American harvest will continue with a drier pattern in Brazil, but rains in Argentina. Trade will be looking for signs of additional acres, especially with a slow start to planting in the Dakotas on spring wheat. The WASDE report is expected to show a larger domestic carryover following the higher than expected March 1 stocks number. The average carryover guess is at 570 million bushels versus 555 last month; the range is 520-605 million. The Global carryover is expected to be at 92.9 million metric ton versus 94.4 last month. The Argentine 2018 production is expected to drop to 42.3 million metric tons from 47 million last month and 57.8 last year illustrating the horrible crop weather this year. Brazil is expected to see a 2.6 million metric ton increase over last month to 115.6 to partially offset the Argentine losses. The weekly export inspections were low at 373,940 metric tons. On the May contract, trade is back above the 20-day at $10.33 with resistance the overnight high at $10.57 to start the week. WHEAT Wheat trade is 12 to 16 cents higher at midday with poor spring wheat planting weather, and poor winter wheat growing weather helping to support the market. The weekly crop progress is expected to show the crop behind normal progress wise, with conditions down slightly on the week. The slow progress likely limits damage from the cold snap due to slow jointing. Spring wheat areas remain well below normal temperatures hindering planting. Warmer weather for the Black Sea and continental Europe should help to support growth there, with their price advantage growing on the world market. The WASDE tomorrow is expected to have the world carryover in line with March, the average trade guess is 268.4 million metric tons with a range of 266.5-270. The domestic carryover is expected to be at 1.04 billion bushels versus 1.034 on the March report. The weekly export inspections were okay at 430,080 metric ton. On the May Kansas City contract support is at the 50-day at $4.92 with trade with the upper Bollinger band at 5.32 the next level of resistance. David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered adviser. He can be reached at [email protected] Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (BAS) Copyright 2018 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.