DTN Midday Grain Comments 04/10 10:57

DTN Midday Grain Comments 04/10 10:57 Soybeans Trade Firm, Corn 1-to-2 Cents Lower Soybeans trade is firm, corn 1-to-2 cents lower in pre-report trade at midday. By David Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst General Comments The U.S. stock market indices are higher with the Dow futures up 480 points. The interest rate products are higher. The dollar index is 20 points lower. Energies are firmer with crude up $1.90. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are steady to slightly higher. CORN Corn trade is 1-to-2 cents lower in choppy trade ahead of the WASDE report release due out at 11 this morning. Early fieldwork and planting looks to remain slow for the bulk of the belt with some warmer -- or more normal -- temperatures expected, but overall remain cooler than normal, especially for the north. The USDA reported 2% of the crop planted, same as average. The report is expected to show a domestic carryover higher than last month due to the higher than expected March 1 stocks numbers. The average guess is at 2.192 billion bushels (bb) versus 2.127 bb on the March report; the range of estimates is 2.05-to-2.265 billion. The world carryover is expected to be down two from last month at 197 million metric tons (mmt). Brazilian production is expected to be at 92.2 mmt versus 94.5 on the last report, with Argentine production expected to be at 33.5 versus 36 last month and 41 mmt last year. CONAB pegged corn production at 88.61 mmt. On the May chart we are back above the 20-day at $3.82 5/8, which is support with resistance the recent highs of $3.92 1/2 then the $3.95 1/4 8-month high. SOYBEANS Soybean trade is 7-to-10 cents higher with an export announcement proving support. Meal is flat and oil is 25-to-35 points higher. South American harvest will continue with a drier pattern in Brazil, but rains in Argentina. Trade will be looking for signs of additional acres, especially with a slow start to planting in the Dakotas on spring wheat and the slow start to corn. USDA announced export sales of 279,000 metric tons to unknown, 132,000 to China and 120,000 Argentina for new crop, with the first bookings that direction since 2008-09. CONAB pegged Brazil production at 114.97 mmt. The WASDE report is expected to show a larger domestic carryover following the higher than expected March 1 stocks number. The average carryover guess is at 570 million bushels (mb) versus 555 mb last month; the range is 520-to-605 mb. The Global carryover is expected to be at 92.9 mmt versus 94.4 mmt last month. The Argentine 2018 production is expected to drop to 42.3 mmt from 47 mmt last month and 57.8 mmt last year, illustrating the horrible crop weather this year. Brazil is expected to see a 2.6 mmt increase over last month to 115.6 mmt to partially offset the Argentine losses. On the May contract, trade is back above the 20-day at $10.33 with resistance being the overnight high at $10.57 to start the week. WHEAT Wheat trade is 1 cent better to 6 cents lower at midday with trade backing off the strength shown to start the week, with big numbers expected again on the report. The weekly crop conditions and progress report was down 2% at 30% good to excellent, and 35% poor to very poor, with heading at 3% versus 4% on average. The slow progress likely limits damage from the cold snap due to slow jointing. Spring wheat areas remain well below normal temperatures; hindering planting with 2% planted versus 6% on average. Warmer weather for the Black Sea and Continental Europe should help to support growth there, with their price advantage growing on the world market. The WASDE Wednesday is expected to have the world carryover in line with March, the average trade guess is 268.4 mmt with a range of 266.5-to-270 mmt. The domestic carryover is expected to be at 1.04 bb versus 1.034 bb on the March report. On the May KC contract support is at the 50-day at $4.95, with trade with the upper Bollinger band at $5.32, the next level of resistance. David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered adviser. He can be reached at [email protected] Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (BAS) Copyright 2018 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.