DTN Midday Grain Comments 05/08 11:23

DTN Midday Grain Comments 05/08 11:23 Grains Trending Higher at Midday The market is bouncing back with firmer trade at midday with wheat showing the most strength. By David Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst General Comments The U.S. stock market indices are mixed with two sided trade so far. The interest rate products are higher. The dollar index is 40 points higher. Energies are weaker with crude down 2.70. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are weaker with gold down 6.20. CORN Corn trade is 2 to 3 cents higher at midday with trade holding over the $4.00 area overnight after the initial test lower. Rains will slow planting through the middle of the belt in spots this week, but the warmer temps should boost progress of the large amount of corn planted up until then along with the quick pace in front of the rain. The second crop areas of Brazil should catch some showers to mitigate some stress but the crop size should trend lower. Ethanol margins will need futures to continue their recent rally, with futures edging lower this morning. Planting progress was rated at 39% complete, 5 percentage points behind average, emergence was 8% vs. 14% on average. Thursday we will see the USDA monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) with the new crop balance sheets expected. On the July chart we are above the 20-day at $3.96 which remains support, with resistance the fresh high at $4.08 1/4 scored Thursday. SOYBEANS Soybean trade is 4 to 8 cents higher at midday with trade rebounding off the fresh lows scored yesterday as crush margins narrowed, with buying showing on trade weakness this morning. Meal is $3 to $4 higher and oil is 10 to 20 points lower. The recent pattern in South America should remain intact near term allowing for greater progress in Brazil harvesting, with the stronger dollar and cheaper real encouraging sales and export business, along with the weaker Argentina peso as the push interest rates to 40%. Planting progress was 15% vs. 13% on average. On the July chart, trade is back above the 200-day at $10.16 at midday with the next level of support the psychological support at $10.00, while the 100-day at $10.27 is resistance. WHEAT Wheat trade is flat to 7 cents higher at midday with the winter wheat taking the lead after the early weakness. The dollar rally will likely continue to limit upside, with the index at 93. Warmer weather should help to boost maturity with the crop still well behind normal, with further stress likely if not combined with rain, especially for the western edge of the Plains, with shower potential focused on the more northern winter wheat growing areas. Spring wheat-growing areas look more open as they catch up further. The Black Sea area will continue to dominate export trade with spring weather not triggering any major excitement thus far with a warm dry start, but a wetter nearby forecast. Black Sea values are moving back towards $202 a ton. Weekly conditions showed a slight improvement to 34% good to excellent, and 37% poor to very poor, with 33% headed, vs. 41% on average. Spring wheat was 30% planted vs. 51% on average, and 4% emerged vs. 22% on average. On the July Kansas City contract support is the 20-day at $5.27 support after we moved through it this last week, with resistance the $5.42 area of the 10-day moving average, which we are just above at midday. David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered adviser. He can be reached at [email protected] Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (BAS) Copyright 2018 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.