DTN Midday Grain Comments 06/26 11:50

DTN Midday Grain Comments 06/26 11:50 Grains Mixed at Midday Corn holds small gains and midday with soybeans and wheat struggling. By David Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst General Comments The U.S. stock market indices are firmer with the Dow up 55. The interest rate products are mixed. The dollar index is 25 points higher. Energies are mixed with crude up 1.10. Livestock trade is mixed with hogs leading. Precious metals are weaker with gold down 8.40. CORN Corn trade is 1 to 2 cents higher at midday with trade trying to bounce back from the weakness to start the week. Harvest should continue to expand in the double crop areas of Brazil with open weather continuing, while Black Sea area corn remains mostly dry into July. US weather looks to remain wet in the near term, with heat expected to show up into midweek with rain possibilities mixed next week. Ethanol blending margins remain exceptionally strong with unleaded trading at a 60 cent premium to ethanol and weaker corn values boosting producer's margins, with ethanol futures working higher this morning. Basis has been flat to firmer in recent days with the lower board. Weekly crop progress had conditions 1% lower at 77% good to excellent, and 5% poor to very poor, with 5% silking vs. 3% on average. On the July chart we remain below the 10-day, at $3.58 which is now nearby resistance and then the 200-day at $3.81. Nearby support is the $3.43 lower Bollinger Band then the $3.38 3/4 spike low from last week. SOYBEANS Soybean trade is 4 to 7 cents lower at midday with two sided trade so far, with trade failing to hold surges so far. Meal is flat to $1 higher and oil 5 to 15 higher. Trade concerns will continue to fuel volatility with plenty of talk on all sides, and Brazil building a substantial premium to US origin. Bean basis has remained steady to firmer, with trade likely to remain quiet in the near term as old crop exports remain slow with Brazilian values remaining strong on the anticipation of future business. China reduced soybeans tariffs on neighboring Asian nations in a symbolic move. Widespread rains should boost near term growth with the heat to follow, and the main reproductive season still a ways out. Crop progress left conditions unchanged at 73% good to excellent, and 5% poor to very poor, with 95% emerged vs. 89% on average, and 12% blooming vs. 5% on average. On the July chart support is at lower Bollinger Band at 8.49, and resistance the 10-day at $8.98. WHEAT Wheat trade is 2 to 12 cents lower at midday with selling returning after overnight strength with harvest pressure and the fragile commodity enviroment. Harvest progress for Kansas should pick up this week with the warmer and drier weather returning for the second half of the week. Spring wheat should see good progress with Canada remaining drier. Australia should see some improvement but overall remains mixed. Russia remains dry in the winter wheat growing areas. HRW basis has remains solid ahead of the anticipated harvest protein improvement and board weakness. Crop progress had winter wheat at 37% good to excellent, and 33% poor to very poor, with 41% harvested vs. 33% on average. Spring wheat was down 1 percentage point at 77% good to excellent, and 5% poor to very poor, and 34% headed vs. 27% on average. On the July Kansas City is back below all the major moving averages with the 200-day at $4.96 the closest to the market, and $4.60 becoming support as the fresh low. David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered adviser. He can be reached at [email protected] Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (BAS) Copyright 2018 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.