DTN Midday Grain Comments 06/27 11:18

DTN Midday Grain Comments 06/27 11:18 All Grains Higher at Midday Winter wheat contracts are the midday leader, with row crop gains fading By David Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst General Comments The U.S. stock market indices are firmer with the Dow up 115. The interest rate products are weaker. The dollar index is 45 points higher. Energies are firmer with crude up 2.10. Livestock trade is mostly lower. Precious metals are weaker with gold down 5.90. CORN Corn trade is 1 to 2 cents higher at midday with trade still struggling to hold strength/recovery after the early-week washout last week. Harvest should continue to expand in the double-crop areas of Brazil with open weather continuing, while Black Sea-area corn remains mostly dry into July. U.S. weather will trend warmer in the near term with mixed rain forecasts. The weekly ethanol report showed production up 8,000 barrels per day, and stocks up slightly at 27,000 barrels with ethanol futures edging back above 1.43 with unleaded maintaining a large premium to boost blenders. Basis has been flat to firmer in recent days with the lower board. On the report on Friday, the average acre guess is for 88.372 million acres up from 88.026 in March, and stocks at 5.268 billion bushels. On the September chart, we remain below the 10-day, at $3.65 which is now nearby resistance, and we tested overnight and then the 200-day at $3.88. Nearby support is the $3.50 lower Bollinger Band then the $3.46 spike low from last week. SOYBEANS Soybean trade is 1 to 3 cents higher with trade again turning two sided after solid overnight gains. Meal is $1 to $2 higher and oil 10 to 20 higher. Trade concerns will continue to fuel volatility with plenty of talk on all sides, and Brazil building a substantial premium to US origin with some thawing rumored in U.S./China talks. Bean basis has remained steady to firmer, with trade likely to remain quiet in the near term as old crop exports remain slow with Brazilian values remaining strong on the anticipation of future business. China reduced soybeans tariffs on neighboring Asian nations in a symbolic move. Widespread rains should boost near term growth with the heat to follow, and the main reproductive season still a ways out. The average acre guess is 89.79 million acres up from 88.92 in March with stocks at 1.225 billion bushels. On the August chart, support is at lower Bollinger Band at 8.39, and resistance the 10-day at $8.96. WHEAT Wheat trade is flat to 8 cents higher at midday with the winter wheats taking the lead after the recent liquidation. Harvest progress for Kansas should pick up this week with the warmer and drier weather returning for the second half of the week and mixed yield. Spring wheat should see good progress with Canada remaining drier. Australia should see some improvement but overall remains mixed. Russia remains dry in the winter wheat growing areas. HRW basis remains solid ahead of the anticipated harvest protein improvement and board weakness. All wheat acres have expected to be 47.122, down from 47.339 in March, with the losses on spring wheat acres, and stocks expected to be at 1.091 billion bushels. On the September chart, Kansas City is back below all the major moving averages with the 200-day at $5.13 the closest to the market, and $4.73 becoming support as the fresh low. David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered adviser. He can be reached at [email protected] Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (BAS) Copyright 2018 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.