DTN Midday Grain Comments 07/31 11:36

DTN Midday Grain Comments 07/31 11:36 All Grains Higher at Midday Soybeans move sharply higher, leading positive trade at midday. By David Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst General Comments The U.S. stock market indices are firmer with the Dow futures up 115. The interest rate products are mixed. The dollar index is 20 points higher. Energies are weaker with crude down $1.30. Livestock trade is weaker. Precious metals are mixed with gold down $0.20. CORN Corn trade is 4 to 6 cents higher at midday with trade continuing to creep higher with light buying ongoing after a neutral condition report and support from soybeans. Warmer weather looks to return the second half of the week, which should add some support. Ethanol margins have narrowed with the corn rally but remain positive with blender margins seeing the most pressure as ethanol futures have firmed back to the 1.46 area. Corn basis is fading ahead of harvest and late-season corn movement. Weekly crop progress was steady at 72% good to excellent, 8% poor to very poor, 91% silking, 9% above average, and 38% in the dough, 18% above average. On the September chart futures are above the 10-day at $3.56, and the 20-day at $3.52, with trade just above next level of resistance, the upper Bollinger Band at 3.69 with the 50-day at $3.71, which we are above at midday, with the 200-day at $3.84 the next round higher. SOYBEANS Soybean trade is 25 to 28 cents higher at midday with talk that trade negotiations are resuming with China spurring buying along with the forecast. Meal is $6.50 to $7.50 higher and oil is 45 to 55 points higher. Brazil remains at premium with the U.S. fall export program uncertain with bookings running behind off the West Coast, while nearby movement has remained solid with the trade optimism potentially pushing the PNW program back into gear. Bean basis has remained steady with processors taking the lead with crush margins remaining exceptionally strong. Weather could provide more support if August weather keeps trending drier and warmer with more forecasts leaning that way Weekly crop progress had conditions unchanged at 70% good to excellent, and 8% poor to very poor, 86% blooming, 9% above average, and 60% setting pods, 19% above average. On the September chart trade jumped past the upper Bollinger band at 8.95 this morning, with the 50-day at 9.19 the next level of resistance. WHEAT Wheat trade is 2 to 5 cents higher with trade failing to hold the 15-18 cent higher trade on the open with action getting more bogged down with overbought conditions at the upper end of the range. Spring wheat momentum slowed today which could limit upside in the short term. Spring wheat progress will pick up with the warmer weather returning this week. Russian harvest continues to move along as well with yields remaining below last year's levels as they get into spring wheat harvest; although they have improved a little more as harvest expands with some problems with sprouting. Western Europe continues to see excessive heat with harvest heading towards the home stretch. HRW basis has started to waver a bit on the plains as harvest wraps up and exports remain slow. Weekly crop progress had winter wheat at 85% complete, 1% behind average, with spring wheat 4% complete, same as average with conditions down 1 percentage point at 78% good to excellent, and 4% very poor, with spring wheat conditions steady and maturity well ahead of normal. On the September Kansas City we are back above all the major moving averages with trade with the 50-day at 5.22, and the 100-day at 5.30 with the next resistance the recent high at $5.64. David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered adviser. He can be reached at [email protected] Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (BAS) Copyright 2018 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.