DTN Midday Grain Comments 08/07 11:08

DTN Midday Grain Comments 08/07 11:08 Grains Mixed at Midday Soybeans lead at midday with corn and wheat softer. By David Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst General Comments The U.S. stock market indices are firmer with the Dow futures up 160. The interest rate products are firmer. The dollar index is 22 points lower. Energies are firmer with crude 0.10 higher. Livestock trade is mixed with hogs leading. Precious metals are firmer with gold down $2.20. CORN Corn trade is flat to 2 cents lower at midday with trade turning lower along with wheat during the day session. The forecast looks warmer and drier in the near term, continuing to push the crop along. Ethanol margins remain solid but have narrowed with the corn rally. Ethanol futures are at the lower end of the recent range, slipping below 1.43 Tuesday. Corn basis is fading ahead of harvest and late-season corn movement. Harvest is likely to start a couple weeks early this week. USDA announced 179,000 metric tons of optional-origin corn sold to unknown. Weekly Crop Progress showed conditions down 1 percentage point to 71% good to excellent, 10% poor to very poor. Ninety-six percent of the crop was silking, 4 percentage points ahead of average; 57% was in the dough, 20 percentage points ahead of average; and 12% was dented, 6 percentage points ahead of average. On the September chart, futures are above the 10-day at $3.65, and the 20-day at $3.56. Trade is moving above at the 50-day at $3.66 and the upper Bollinger Band at $3.79, with the 200-day at $3.84 the next round higher. SOYBEANS Soybean trade is 8 to 10 cents higher at midday with trade fading slightly from the high scored overnight with a lower condition rating along with warmer and drier nearby weather. Meal is $3.00 to 4.00 higher. Oil is 15 to 25 points higher. Another round of tariff threats has helped to maintain the Brazil premium and encourage selling nearby. But there is some talk of China business getting done again, with 145,000 metric tons of new crop sold to unknown Tuesday. Bean basis has remained steady with processors taking the lead. Crush margins remain exceptionally strong, but early bean harvest will likely surface this year. Weather could provide more support if August weather ends up on the dry side. The forecast calls for limited rain in some areas with better coverage in some areas over the weekend. Weekly Crop Progress showed conditions down 3 percentage points to 67% good to excellent and 10% poor to very poor. The crop was 92% blooming vs. 86% on average, and 75% setting pods vs. 58% on average. On the September chart, trade is back below the 50-day at $9.04, with support the 20-day at $8.65. WHEAT Wheat trade is flat to 5 cents lower with an initial dime higher trade overnight on continued world production concerns as we get more overbought, which has triggered some selling Tuesday. Spring wheat progress will pick up with warmer weather returning this week as harvest expands. Russian harvest continues to move along, as well, with yields remaining below last year's levels as they deeper into spring wheat harvest. Ukraine looks to be off a bit on exportable potential. HRW basis remains sideways to lower as the U.S. struggles to compete on the export market even with the end of European harvest amid their difficulties. Australia remains on the dry side with the crop pace ahead of normal, as well. The weekly Crop Progress report had winter wheat 90% harvested, vs. 92% on average. Spring wheat was 13% harvested vs. 14% on average, and the crop's good-to-excellent rating was down 4 percentage points to 74%, and 6% was rated poor to very poor. On the September KC, we are back above all the major moving averages with the 50-day at $5.23, and the 100-day at $5.30 with the next resistance the contract high at $5.99. David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered adviser. He can be reached at [email protected] Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (BAS) Copyright 2018 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.