DTN Midday Livestock Comments 11/20 12:08

DTN Midday Livestock Comments 11/20 12:08 Hogs Higher, Cattle Lower at Midday Lean hog futures are higher Friday, while cattle contracts are lower. Elaine Kub Contributing Analyst GENERAL COMMENTS: Lean hog futures have recovered somewhat from Thursday's accelerated drop, but live cattle and feeder cattle futures are continuing their losses despite relatively firm indications from cash business in the country. Trade volume may pick up and shift the tone for live cattle futures as the Friday afternoon Cattle on Feed report approaches. December corn is up 1 1/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $0.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 179.41 points and NASDAQ is down 1.12 points. LIVE CATTLE: The December live cattle contract is down $0.575 at $107.675, the February contract is down $0.375 at $110.15 and the April contract is down $0.175 at $114.025. Cash cattle traders have so far remained quiet Friday and they may continue to drag their feet until after the Cattle on Feed report gets released Friday afternoon. The report is expected to show anywhere from a 0.9% to a 2.6% year-over-year increase in the Nov. 1 inventory (average analyst estimate at 1.8% increase). It's also expected to show anywhere from a 12.7% to a 4.5% year-over-year drop in October placements (average analyst estimate at 90.8% of last year's number), but this isn't necessarily as bullish as it sounds given how large the October 2019 placements were. Bullish interpretation could still be given to any of the numbers in this month's report, once discounted for the lighter weights of the animals coming into lots after the persistent drought across the High Plains and Southwest. Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice up $0.80 ($238.50) and select down $0.12 ($213.77) with a movement of 60 loads (31.67 loads of choice, 12.15 loads of select, 7.71 loads of trim and 8.4 loads of ground beef). FEEDER CATTLE: The January feeder cattle futures contract, now the front-month contract, has continued its downward slide Friday and, by dipping as low as $133 per cwt at one point in the morning, given back all the gains it had once made during the month of November. Futures trade volume has been relatively deep so far during this session, so the losses can't even be blamed on poor liquidity. At midday, that January contract is down $1.175 at $134.375, the March contract is down $0.65 at $134.30, and the April contract is down $0.45 at $136.125. LEAN HOGS: It has been a volatile week in outside markets with the day-by-day prospects of a good vaccine (for humans, not swine) to prevent coronavirus cases and economic lockdowns being weighed by the various markets, leaving lean hog traders to respond. Thursday's steep losses left a buying opportunity for traders who judge hogs should stay above $64 per cwt through the end of 2020, and their buying interest has pulled lean hog contracts into across-the-board gains. The December contract is up $0.80 at $64.50, February is up $2.65 at $65.70, and April is up $2.45 at $68.675. The projected lean hog index for 11/19/2020 is down $0.63 at $68.14 and the actual index for 11/18/2020 was down $0.55 at $68.77. Hog prices are higher on the National Direct Morning Hog Report, up $0.08 with a weighted average of $58.48, ranging from $50.00 to $58.99 on 3,406 head and a five-day rolling average of $58.76. Pork cutouts total 229.13 loads with 198.80 loads of pork cuts and 30.34 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.35, $78.87. Elaine Kub is the author of "Mastering the Grain Markets: How Profits Are Really Made" and can be reached at [email protected]. Editor's Note: See DTN Livestock Analyst ShayLe Stewart's complete 2021 market outlook live by attending the DTN Ag Summit, Dec. 7-9. This year's event is virtual, and as a DTN subscriber you can attend for FREE. Our premier farmer and rancher event features markets updates from ShayLe, DTN Lead Analyst Todd Hultman and a weather outlook by Senior Ag Meteorologist Bryce Anderson. Other speakers include: U.S. Ambassador Kip Tom; Ken Eriksen and Paul Hughes of IHS Markit; Microsoft Chief Scientist Ranveer Chandra; personal development speakers David Horsager and Jon Gordon; farmers Reid and Heather Thompson; farm blogger Meredith Bernard, and many more. You can take part, and ask live questions, all from the comfort of your home, shop or tractor cab. Register at https://nam03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.dtn.com%2Fa gsummit&data=04%7C01%7Cscott.kemper%40dtn.com%7Cac6bbb50e0fb4f3d7a1b08d88699dc5f %7Cd945da26f07f451496e79b8f78a743d0%7C0%7C0%7C637407342673172926%7CUnknown%7CTWF pbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C10 00&sdata=GNA2Ki89YXFtCVRYBszt7rkt9kURe5CGBuNLsNeKGrs%3D&reserved=0 and enter code DTNVIP20 to get free access (a $99 value). (c) Copyright 2020 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.