DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

OMAHA (DTN) -- Most average retail fertilizer prices continued to rise the second week of August 2021, once again led by potash, according to sellers surveyed by DTN.

Like last week, six of the eight major fertilizers were higher compared to last month, with only potash up a significant amount, which DTN designates 5% or more. Potash was up 13% compared to the prior month and now has an average price of $563 per ton.

The remaining five fertilizers were just slightly higher. DAP had an average price of $695/ton, MAP $755/ton, urea $555/ton, 10-34-0 $630/ton and anhydrous $740/ton.

Two fertilizers, UAN28 and UAN32, were slightly lower in price looking back a month. UAN28 had an average price of $366/ton and UAN32 $418/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.60/lb.N, anhydrous $0.45/lb.N, UAN28 $0.65/lb.N and UAN32 $0.65/lb.N.

In a post to the farmdocDaily e-newsletter, University of Illinois ag economists Gary Schnitkey, Nick Paulson and Krista Swanson, along with Ohio State University ag economist Carl Zulauf, wrote about 2021 fertilizer prices and the implications for 2022 costs. The post can be found at https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/….

USDA's Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) reported Illinois fertilizer prices on July 29, 2021, with anhydrous at $746/ton, DAP $717/ton and potash at $600/ton, considerably higher from a year earlier. The last time the anhydrous price was this high was June 2014, DAP December 2008 and potash November 2012.

Anhydrous price increased from $487/ton to $746/ton in 2021, up $259/ton or 53%. DAP rose from $390/ton to $717/ton, up $327/ton or 83%. Potash price increased from $350/ton to $600/ton in 2021 and saw a rise of $250/ton or 71%.

"Current higher fertilizer prices will translate into higher fertilizer costs for 2022 production of corn and soybeans," the report said. "However, exact increases depend on farmer behavior and how fertilizer prices change from now through the 2022 fertilizer purchasing season."

While current retail fertilizer prices are high, they are not at all-time highs ... yet. According to AMS prices tracked since 2009, three other years (2009, 2012, 2013) saw anhydrous, DAP and potash prices higher than their current levels.

"History suggests that fertilizer prices can change rapidly, likely bringing modifications to fertilizer cost projections," the report said. "Further note that several periods of sharp declines have occurred in history."

Retail fertilizer prices compared to a year ago show all fertilizers have increased significantly.

10-34-0 is now 35% more expensive, urea is 56% higher, potash is 59% more expensive, UAN32 is 61% higher, DAP is 63% more expensive, UAN28 65% higher, DAP is 66% more expensive and MAP is 74% higher compared to last year.

DTN collects roughly 1,700 retail fertilizer bids from 310 retailer locations weekly. Not all fertilizer prices change each week. Prices are subject to change at any time.

DTN Pro Grains subscribers can find current retail fertilizer price in the DTN Fertilizer Index on the Fertilizer page under Farm Business.

Retail fertilizer charts dating back to 2010 are available in the DTN fertilizer segment. The charts included cost of N/lb., DAP, MAP, potash, urea, 10-34-0, anhydrous, UAN28 and UAN32.

Russ Quinn can be reached at [email protected]

Follow him on Twitter @RussQuinnDTN

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