DTN Midday Grain Comments 01/12 12:34

DTN Midday Grain Comments 01/12 12:34 Corn, Soybeans, Wheat Futures Lower Ahead of Reports Corn futures are 2 to 3 cents lower at midday Wednesday; soybean futures are 4 to 6 cents lower; wheat futures are 4 to 8 cents lower. David M. Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst MARKET SUMMARY: The U.S. stock market is flat with the Dow up 35 points. The U.S. Dollar Index is 50 points lower. Interest rate products are mixed. Energies are firmer with crude up 1.25. Livestock trade is firmer with hogs leading. Precious metals are firmer with gold up 3.00. CORN: Corn futures are 2 to 3 cents lower at midday Wednesday with trade working around $6.00 nearby with pre-report position squaring likely to continue until 11 a.m. CST. Ethanol margins will continue to be squeezed by tepid short-term demand with production off 42,000 barrels per day (bpd), with a near record stocks build of 1.552 million barrels. Basis should remain rangebound to slightly weaker in the short term with warmer midweek weather to help movement. Trade will continue watching South American weather more as we get closer to the key weather time frames on new crop as well as soybean progress for the timing of double-crop planting. Report expectations are for stocks at 11.6 billion bushels (bb) vs. 11.29 bb last year, with carryout at 1.472 bb. USDA announced 100,000 metric tons (mt) of corn sold to unknown. On the March contract we have support at the 20-day moving average at $5.99, which we are testing at midday, then the upper Bollinger band at $6.14 as further resistance. SOYBEANS: Soybean futures are 4 to 6 cents lower at midday with two-sided action ongoing as trade works to balance short-term heat, improved medium-term forecasts and where demand is ahead of the report. Meal is narrowly mixed and oil is 55 to 65 points lower. Basis remains mostly flat in the short term with the daily export wire showing 132,000 mt sold to China for new crop. Crush margins remain solid with future renewable diesel demand likely to keep good support under oil going forward. On the report, trade is looking for stocks of 3.13 bu vs. 2.95 bb last year, and domestic carryout at 348 million bushels (mb). Early harvest is getting underway in northern Brazil as well. On the March soybean chart, we have resistance at the fresh high at $14.15 which we scored Friday, and the 20-day moving average, well below the market at $13.49, as support. WHEAT: Wheat futures are 4 to 8 cents lower with Chicago retaking the lead at midday as wheat still works in the lower end of the recent range. The dollar has faded back from the highs with little surprise in recent Fed statements. Plains weather looks drier with a little snow cover out of the last system, while temps continue to fluctuate, keeping stress intact with other Northern Hemisphere weather concerns fading for the moment. On the report, wheat stocks are expected to be at 1.42 bb vs. 1.70 lbb ast year, and domestic carryout at 608 mb, and winter wheat acres at 34.255 million vs. 33.65 million last year. Spring wheat is softer vs. Chicago moving the premium to $1.62 on the March, with KC at a 19-cent premium in weaker action as well. KC March chart support is the lower Bollinger band at $7.55 with the 20-day moving average at $8.08 still well above the market. David Fiala can be reached at [email protected] Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (c) Copyright 2022 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.