DTN Midday Grain Comments 02/02 11:13

DTN Midday Grain Comments 02/02 11:13 Soybeans Higher at Midday; Corn, Wheat Lower Corn futures are 11 to 13 cents lower at midday Wednesday; soybean futures are 2 to 4 cents higher; wheat futures are 10 to 17 cents lower. David M. Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst MARKET SUMMARY: The U.S. stock market is flat with the Dow down 30 points. The U.S. Dollar Index is 35 points lower. Interest rate products are firmer. Energies are mixed with crude down .65. Livestock trade is sharply higher. Precious metals are higher with gold up 9.00. CORN: Corn futures are 11 to 13 cents lower at midday with softer spread action as rising ethanol demand concerns and waning spillover momentum from soybeans weigh on the market. Ethanol margins continue to deteriorate in the short term with better demand needed to put a dent in the growing stocks. Production posted another surprise increase of 6,000 barrels per day (bpd) and an increase of 1.378 million in stocks as we get closer to record inventories and the highest since May 1, 2020. Trade will continue to look for further sales confirmation on the daily wire with no corn sales reported Wednesday. Basis should remain rangebound to slightly weaker in the short term, especially at the processors with weather likely to slow short-term movement in some areas. Trade will continue watching South American weather as we head into second-crop planting and development along with new-crop strength in soybeans to swing acres late. On the March contract we have support at the 20-day moving average at $6.13; the fresh high scored Monday at $6.42 1/2 is resistance. SOYBEANS: Soybean futures are 2 to 4 cents higher at midday, pulling back sharply off the early morning highs. Buying poured in at 5:45 a.m. CST as short squeezing and declining production estimates kept providing bullish fuel, along with an old-crop sale of 380,000 metric tons (mt) to unknown. Meal is $2.50 to $3.50 lower and oil is narrowly mixed. Basis is expected to remain flat to weaker in the short term with weather slowing movement. Crush margins are a bit softer at midday as well. Early harvest in underway in South America, likely to further crimp U.S. export competitiveness in February with mixed short-term weather for most. On the March soybean chart, we have resistance at the fresh high at $15.64, with trade well above the 20-day moving average at $14.22 as support. WHEAT: Wheat futures are 10 to 17 cents lower with spring wheat leading as trade reverses lower with fresh bullish news lacking and less spillover support from the row crops. The dollar has faded back to the middle part of the range. Plains weather looks to have moisture for some in the short term with the crop likely to stay dormant and some areas having better snow cover now. Fresh news from Ukraine and Russia remains limited as well. Spring wheat is firmer versus Chicago, moving the premium to $1.55 on the March, with KC at a 15-cent premium in softer action. KC March chart resistance is the 20-day moving average at $7.88, which we are fading back from, with further support the Lower Bollinger Band at $7.49. David Fiala can be reached at [email protected] Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (c) Copyright 2022 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.