DTN Midday Grain Comments 02/10 11:04

DTN Midday Grain Comments 02/10 11:04 Corn, Soybean, Wheat Futures Higher at Midday Corn futures are 9 to 10 cents higher; soybean futures are 15 to 16 cents higher; wheat futures are 4 cents lower to 5 cents higher. David M. Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst MARKET SUMMARY: The U.S. stock market is weaker with the Dow down 140 points. The U.S. Dollar Index is 28 points lower. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are firmer with crude up 1.65. Livestock trade is firmer with hogs leading. Precious metals are firmer with gold up 3.00. CORN: Corn futures are 9 to 10 cents higher with fresh highs being scored again as corn follows the lead of soybeans with spread action remaining firm. Ethanol margins continue to deteriorate in the short term with a little support from the first stocks draw of the year as production slows. The WASDE report showed carryout unchanged at 1.540 billion bushels (bb) versus 1.498 bb expected. South American production estimate was lowered by 1 million metric tons (mmt). World stocks were lowered .9 mmt from last month at 302.2 mmt. CONAB pegged Brazilian production at 112.3 mmt, just under the USDA number. Trade will continue to look for further sales confirmation on the daily wire with nothing this week, but rumors swirling about significant fresh bookings. Weekly corn sales slipped to 589,100 metric tons (mt). Basis should remain rangebound to slightly weaker in the short term, especially at the processors with weather likely to allow for better movement this week. Trade will continue watching South American weather as we head into second-crop planting and development along with new-crop strength in soybeans to swing acres late in the U.S. On the March contract we have support at the 20-day moving average at $6.18 then the fresh high at $6.62 3/4 as resistance. SOYBEANS: Soybean futures are 15 to 16 cents higher with fresh buying coming in after starting flat before pulling a bit off the highs into midday. The CONAB estimate came in at 125.7 mmt for Brazil, 8.3 mmt below the USDA number Wednesday. Meal is $6.00 to $7.00 higher and oil is 105 to 115 points higher. On the report, we saw domestic carryout at 325 million bushels (mb) versus 308 mb expected and South American production cut by 6.9 mmt versus 8.3 mmt expected, both of which are well above current private and South American government estimates. Basis is expected to remain flat to weaker in the short term with the active board trade. Crush margins continue to be supported by meal gains with oil action struggling at the highs as palm oil restrictions ease slightly. The daily wire remains active this week with another 299,700 mt sold to unknown, mostly of old crop with weekly sales improved at 1.6 mmt of old crop and 894,600 mt of new crop; 241,400 of new meal and -2,200 of old crop meal; 2,900 of old oil and -200 of new. Early harvest is underway in South America, likely to further crimp U.S. export competitiveness in February with mixed short-term weather with the southern growing areas looking to get the shorter end of rains in the next couple of weeks. On the March soybean chart, we have resistance at the fresh high at $16.33 with trade well above the 20-day moving average at $14.76 as support. WHEAT: Wheat futures are 4 cents lower to 5 cents higher with trade following the lead of the row crops as it works into the upper end of the recent range and turning more mixed. The dollar continues to work sideways into the lower end of the range. The report showed carryout at 648 mb versus 632 mb expected, and world stocks 1.2 mmt below expectations. Drier weather returns to the Southern Plains in the short term with better moisture for the south and east potentially in the extended forecast with warmer weather removing cover with weather issues more limited in the Black Sea for now. Fresh news from Ukraine and Russia remains limited on the political front. Spring wheat is firmer versus Chicago pushing the premium to $1.64 on the March, with KC at a 28-cent premium in softer action. Weekly export sales remain soft at 84,800 mt of old and 48,400 mt of new. KC March chart support is the 20-day moving average at $7.89 which we are just above at midday, with further resistance the Upper Bollinger Band at $8.37. David Fiala can be reached at [email protected] Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (c) Copyright 2022 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.