DTN Midday Grain Comments 02/14 10:53

DTN Midday Grain Comments 02/14 10:53 Corn, Soybean Futures Lower at Midday; Wheat Mixed Corn futures are 3 to 4 cents lower at midday Monday; soybean futures are 19 to 22 cents lower; wheat futures are 5 cents lower to 2 cents higher. David M. Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst MARKET SUMMARY: The U.S. stock market is mixed with the Dow down 215 points. The U.S. Dollar Index is 28 points higher. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are mixed with crude up .75. Livestock trade is firmer. Precious metals are mixed with gold down 23.50. CORN: Corn futures are 3 to 4 cents lower with early strength fading on spillover pressure from soybeans with softer overall commodity action and flat spread trade. Ethanol margins will remain poor in the short term until driving demand improves and stocks narrow with rising unleaded prices likely to keep tamping driving down along with a fresh winter storm this week. Trade will continue to look for further sales confirmation on the daily wire with none of the major rumored sales confirmed yet. Basis should remain rangebound in the short term with the midweek storm likely to slow movement. Trade will continue watching South American weather as we head into second-crop planting and development with an OK start so far along. New-crop strength in soybeans may swing acres late in the U.S. Weekly export inspections were good at 1.455 million metric tons (mmt). On the March contract, we have support at the 20-day moving average at $6.26, then the fresh high at $6.62 3/4 as resistance. SOYBEANS: Soybean futures are 19 to 22 cents lower at midday with trade failing to hold the initial overnight surge but bouncing off the 30-cent lower trade overnight. Meal is $9.00 to $10.00 lower and oil is 35 to 45 points lower. Basis is expected to remain flat to weaker in the short term with the active board trade. Crush margins have been supported by meal in recent days with oil flattening out as China crush margins trend more negative. The daily wire was very active for new crop last week with nothing to start this week. Weekly export inspections held the recent range at 1.155 mmt. Early harvest is underway in South America, likely to further crimp U.S. export competitiveness in February with mixed short-term weather with the southern growing areas looking to get the shorter end of rains in the next couple of weeks. On the March soybean chart, we have resistance at the fresh high at $16.33 with trade well above the 20-day moving average at $14.94 as support. WHEAT: Wheat futures are 5 cents lower to 2 cents higher, giving back early strength with trade waiting to see what happens with Russia and Ukraine in the short term with messages remaining mixed. The U.S. forecast is shifting Plains' moisture further east in the short term with spring wheat action leading at midday. The dollar has moved back to the middle part of the range. Drier weather should persist in the short term, with the second week looking to bring above normal temps to the Plains while other Northern Hemisphere weather is little changed. Weekly export inspections continue to be solid at 438,188 metric tons (mt). Spring wheat is firmer versus Chicago, boosting the premium to $1.72 on the March, with KC at a 29-cent premium in firmer action. KC March chart support is the 20-day moving average at $7.98, with further resistance the Upper Bollinger Band at $8.34, which we tested overnight. David Fiala can be reached at [email protected] Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (c) Copyright 2022 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.