DTN Midday Grain Comments 02/15 10:52

DTN Midday Grain Comments 02/15 10:52 Corn, Soybean, Wheat Futures Lower at Midday Corn futures are 14 to 15 cents lower at midday Tuesday; soybean futures are 7 to 8 cents lower; wheat futures are 9 to 19 cents lower. David M. Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst MARKET SUMMARY: The U.S. stock market is sharply higher with the Dow up 400 points. The U.S. Dollar Index is 35 points lower. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are sharply lower with crude down 4.10. Livestock trade is firmer. Precious metals are mixed with gold down 20.50. CORN: Corn futures are 14 to 15 cents lower at midday in risk-off action with reports of Russia pulling troops back from the border; other fresh news is lacking so far. Ethanol margins will remain poor in the short term until driving demand improves and stocks narrow with rising unleaded prices likely to keep tamping driving down, along with a fresh winter storm this week. However, a sustained corn correction will add some support. Trade will continue to look for further sales confirmation on the daily wire with none of the major rumored sales confirmed yet. Basis should remain rangebound in the short term with the midweek storm likely to slow movement. Trade will continue watching South American weather as we head into second-crop planting and development with an OK start so far. New-crop strength in soybeans may swing acres late in the U.S. On the March contract we have support at the 20-day moving average at $6.29 then the fresh high at $6.62 3/4 as resistance. SOYBEANS: Soybean futures are 7 to 8 cents lower at midday with better strength during the day session as risk-off selling fades and we try to settle into the middle part of the recent range. Harvest progress in South America is building and there is talk of China cancelling Brazil cargos amid poor crush margins. Meal is $3.00 to $4.00 lower and oil is 20 to 30 points lower. Basis is expected to remain flat to weaker in the short term. Crush margins are losing ground with meal in recent days with China crush margins trending more negative. The daily wire was very active for new crop last week with trade watching for more with 101,000 metric tons (mt) announced sold to Mexico on Tuesday. Early harvest is underway in South America, likely to further crimp U.S. export competitiveness in February with mixed short-term weather with the southern growing areas looking to get the shorter end of rains in the next couple of weeks. On the March soybean chart, we have resistance at the fresh high at $16.33 with trade well above the 20-day moving average at $15.04 support. WHEAT: Wheat futures are 9 to 19 cents lower at midday in risk-off trade, bouncing back from nearly 30-cents lower at times. Traders are wary of pulling too much premium out of the markets yet. The dollar has moved back to the middle part of the range with the early week strength. Drier weather should persist in the short term, with the second week looking to bring above normal moisture to the Plains, while other Northern Hemisphere weather is little changed. Spring wheat is firmer versus Chicago, boosting the premium to $1.74 on the March, with KC at a 27-cent premium in softer action. KC March chart support is the 20-day moving average at $8.01, with further resistance the Upper Bollinger Band at $8.36. David Fiala can be reached at [email protected] Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (c) Copyright 2022 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.