DTN Midday Grain Comments 02/25 11:01

DTN Midday Grain Comments 02/25 11:01 Corn, Soybean, Wheat Futures Lower at Midday Corn futures are 33 to 34 cents lower at midday Friday; soybean futures are 58 to 60 cents lower; wheat futures are 60 to 75 cents lower. David M. Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst MARKET SUMMARY: The U.S. stock market is firmer with the Dow 575 points higher. The U.S. Dollar Index is 45 points lower. Interest rate products are mixed. Energies are weaker with crude down 1.30. Livestock trade is mixed with feeder cattle leading. Precious metals are mixed with gold down 39.90. CORN: Corn futures are 33 to 35 cents lower at midday with broad risk off trade picking up overnight after fading from the sharply higher early yesterday with trade still looking for more clarity on how the geopolitical situation affects demand short term. Ethanol margins will remain tight, but demand is showing signs of picking up and March maintenance season will help. Trade will continue to look for further sales confirmation on the daily wire with nothing confirmed in recent days and weekly sales were good at 1.04 million metric tons (mmt) of old crop, and 117,400 of new. Basis could weaken amid the futures chaos especially for exporters. Trade will continue watching South American weather as we head into second crop planting and development with an ok start so far along with new-crop strength in soybeans to swing acres late in the U.S. On the May contract we have support at the 20-day moving average at $6.45 with resistance at the spike high at $7.16 1/4. SOYBEANS: Soybean futures are 58 to 60 cents lower at midday with risk-off trade accelerating after the reversal scored Thursday and new-crop trade off 35 to 37 cents lower as spreads soften with South America having a more stable short-term weather and harvest outlook. Meal is $9.50 to $10.50 lower and oil is 290 to 310 points lower. Basis is expected to remain flat to weaker short term. The daily wire was quiet with weekly sales strong at 1.23 mmt of old crop and 866,500 metric tons (mt) of new, with meal at 231,900 of old crop and oil at 35,500 of old crop. Early harvest is under way in South America, likely to further crimp U.S. export competitiveness moving forward with shipments needing to catch up more to create any pressure though with weather remaining mixed. On the May soybean chart, we have resistance at the fresh high at $17.59 with trade well above the 20-day moving average at $15.79 support. WHEAT: Wheat futures are 60 to 75 cents lower at midday with trade touching expanded limits lower on risk off trade and profit taking. The dollar is back at the highs as well as U.S. export competitiveness will continue to slide in dollar terms. Euro wheat contracts have surged as well and nearby world tenders look to be going by the wayside with Egypt cancelling Thursday. Drier weather should persist short term with the second week moisture expected to improve for the Plains with this week's cold snap to add stress. Spring wheat has rebounded vs. Chicago, moving the premium back to $1.00 on the May, with KC at a 31-cent premium in flat action. Weekly export sales were strong at 516,900 mt of old crop and 169,200 mt of new. KC March chart support is the Upper Bollinger Band at $9.36, which we are back below, with the 20-day at $8.27, the next round lower, with resistance the $9.80 higher. David Fiala can be reached at [email protected] Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (c) Copyright 2022 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.