DTN Midday Grain Comments 03/02 11:05

DTN Midday Grain Comments 03/02 11:05 Wheat Shoots for the Stars, Soybeans Down Corn trade is 2 to 3 cents higher, beans are 24 to 26 cents lower and wheat is 33 to 75 cents higher. David M. Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst MARKET SUMMARY: The U.S. stock market is firmer with the Dow 620 points higher. The dollar index is 23 points higher. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are firmer with crude up $3.80. Livestock trade is mixed with feeder cattle leading. Precious metals are mixed with gold up $17.00. CORN: Corn trade is 2 to 3 cents higher up front with stronger spread trade as fresh highs were scored again, and volatile action is likely to continue with support from wheat again, while new crop works a dime lower. Ethanol margins will remain tight, but demand is showing signs of picking up and March maintenance season will help reduce stocks with production down 27,000 barrels per day, dropping back below 1 million a day, while stocks were down 574,000. Trade will continue to look for further sale confirmations on the daily wire with nothing confirmed in recent days, with Black Sea demand to be reoriented to the U.S. and Brazil short term. Basis will likely remain jumpy short term as well. Trade will continue watching South American weather as we head into second crop planting and development with an OK start so far, along with new crop strength in soybeans to swing acres late in the U.S. On the May contract, we have support at the 20-day moving average at $6.58 with resistance at the fresh overnight high at $7.48. SOYBEANS: Soybean trade is 24 to 26 cents lower at midday with trade fading as beans remain the wobbliest trade in the complex as it fails to challenge the recent highs with little fresh soybean specific news other than production estimates still edging lower. Meal is 7.00 to 8.00 lower and oil 25 to 45 points lower. Basis is expected to remain flat to weaker short term until futures action calms down. The daily wire had sales of 266,000 metric tons to China, and 264,000 to unknown with 2/3rds old crop bushels. Early harvest in under way in South America, likely to further crimp US export competitiveness moving forward with shipments needing to catch up more to create any pressure though with weather showing improvement for the still developing crop. On the May soybean chart, we have resistance at the fresh high at $17.59 with trade well above the 20-day at $16.02 support. WHEAT: Wheat trade is 33 to 75 cents higher with expanded limits in play again with the front months at limit after touching and reversing at least once so far. Strong intra-month spread action is being seen as well as the geopolitical situation shows no improvement overnight with the July/September KC spread widening by 75 to 85 cents at times so far. The dollar is back near the highs as well, as U.S. export competitiveness will slide in dollar terms versus places that can ship grain. Drier weather should persist short term, with the second week moisture expected to improve for the Plains, with this week's warm up likely to start greening the crop up in spots. Spring wheat has weakened versus Chicago, sliding the premium on the May, with KC at an 18-cent premium in mixed action. KC May chart support is the upper Bollinger band at $10.23. which we blew past overnight with resistance likely out towards the $11.00 area. David Fiala can be reached at [email protected] Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (c) Copyright 2022 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.