DTN Midday Grain Comments 03/04 10:47

DTN Midday Grain Comments 03/04 10:47 Grain Futures Seeing Green Midday Friday Corn trade is 15 to 17 cents higher, beans are 7 to 8 cents higher and wheat is 15 to 75 cents higher. David M. Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst MARKET SUMMARY: The U.S. stock market is weaker with the Dow 455 points lower. The dollar index is 0.85 higher. Interest rate products are firmer. Energies are firmer with crude up $3.70. Livestock trade is sharply lower. Precious metals are firmer with gold up $29.00. CORN: Corn trade is 15 to 17 cents higher at midday Friday with weakening spreads as trade backs off limit-higher action, while basis sees significant pressure in the cash market along with early rolls to July bids. Ethanol margins will remain tight as we see how driving demand holds up, along with turnaround on plant maintenance slowing grind short term. Basis will continue to trend lower until trade calms down. Trade will continue watching South American weather as we head into second-crop planting and development, with an OK start so far along with new crop strength in soybeans to swing acres late in the U.S. On the May contract, we have support at the 20-day moving average at $6.72 with resistance at the fresh overnight high at $7.80. SOYBEANS: Soybean trade is 7 to 9 cents higher at midday. Meal is $11.00 to $12.00 higher and oil is 0.65 cent to 0.75 cent lower. Basis is expected to remain flat to weaker short term until futures action calms down, but the big moves seen elsewhere aren't likely right now. The active daily export sales wire continues with 108,000 metric tons of old crop sold to Mexico and 125,000 metric tons to unknown for old crop. Early harvest in under way in South America, likely to further crimp U.S. export competitiveness moving forward, with shipments needing to catch up to create any pressure. On the May soybean chart, we have resistance at the fresh high at $17.59 with trade well above the 20-day at $16.14 support. WHEAT: Wheat trade is 15 to 75 cents higher with expanded limits again Friday, as trade jumped to limit on the front months overnight and stayed there, as panic buying in futures and options keeps trade locked up. Basis is cratering and rolling to further back months, and the back months are starting to back off at midday, with spring wheat being the cheap leg. The dollar is back near the highs as well, as U.S. export competitiveness will slide in dollar terms versus places that can ship grain as we outpace MATIF gains. Drier weather should persist short term, with the second week moisture looking disappointing again. Chicago is expected to remain the highest priced nearby contract in synthetic terms until we can get back to regular active trade. KC May chart support is the upper Bollinger Band at $10.23, which we blew past overnight, with resistance likely the $13.00 area. David Fiala can be reached at [email protected] Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (c) Copyright 2022 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.