DTN Midday Grain Comments 03/07 11:34

DTN Midday Grain Comments 03/07 11:34 Soybean, Wheat Futures Higher at Midday; Corn Lower Corn futures are 11 to 13 cents lower at midday Monday; soybean futures are 7 to 10 cents higher; wheat futures are 14 to 85 cents higher. David M. Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst MARKET SUMMARY: The U.S. stock market is weaker with the Dow 520 points lower. The U.S. Dollar Index is 55 points higher. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are firmer with crude up 4.40. Livestock trade is firmer. Precious metals are mixed with gold up 14.00. CORN: Corn futures are 11 to 13 cents lower at midday Monday with trade fading off the overnight highs while basis is expected to remain under pressure nationwide as we try to digest the demand and logistics situation coming forward while new crop continues to hold the upper end of the range. Ethanol margins will remain tight as we see how driving demand holds up along with turnaround on plant maintenance slowing grind in the short term with some demand likely pulled forward as consumers work to stay ahead of price hikes. Basis will continue to trend lower until trade starts to calm down. Trade will continue watching South American weather as we head into second-crop development, the key feature while corn looks to be defending acres in the U.S. Weekly export inspections remained solid at 1.582 million metric tons (mmt). On the May contract we have support at the 20-day moving average at $6.72 with resistance at the fresh high at $7.82 3/4 hit Friday. SOYBEANS: Soybean futures are 7 to 10 cents higher with firmer spread action as trade continues more rangebound than corn and wheat with less of a world conflict drive keeping the soy complex more of a follower with two-sided trade so far. Meal is $3.50 to $4.50 higher and oil is 70 to 80 higher. Basis is expected to remain flat to weaker in the short term until futures action calms down, but the big moves seen elsewhere shouldn't be as common. The active daily export sales wire is expected to continue in the near term with 132,000 metric tons (mt) sold to China reported Monday, split between old and new crop. Harvest is underway in South America with weather remaining mixed and the U.S. still holding some export competitiveness with weekly export inspections at 766,250 mt. On the May soybean chart, we have resistance at the fresh high at $17.59 with trade well above the 20-day moving average at $16.18 support. WHEAT: Wheat futures are 14 to 85 cents higher at midday with Chicago action moving to the new daily limit of 85 cents and spread trade remaining strong for Chicago, while KC action softens a bit. The dollar is back near the highs as well as U.S. export competitiveness will slide in dollar terms versus places that can ship grain as we outpace MATIF (European commodity exchange) gains. Some moisture worked across parts of the Plains with colder weather near term. Chicago is expected to remain the highest-priced nearby contract in synthetic terms until we can get back to regular active trade with spring wheat now the cheapest from a $2 premium very recently. Weekly export inspections eased a bit lower at 343,463 mt. KC May chart support is the Upper Bollinger band at $11.98 which we blew past last week with resistance likely the $13.00 area. ** WASDE WEBINAR: Join DTN Lead Analyst, Todd Hultman, at 12:30 p.m. CST on Wednesday, March 9, as we take a look at USDA's new estimates and what they mean for the market. We'll also look at the market's own clues to help understand what is driving today's prices. Register for the webinar here: https://nam11.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fag.dtn.com%2Fm ar-WASDE-WBR-Registration&data=04%7C01%7CCheri.Zagurski%40dtn.com%7Cc4b23c4a4477 47910c0008da00569110%7Cd945da26f07f451496e79b8f78a743d0%7C0%7C0%7C63782266903706 4194%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWw iLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C3000&sdata=5NmkYtO%2Ba9KSOOgHlfZwd6E5AOnKMyZxqjmk2bOEOZQ%3D&re served=0 David Fiala can be reached at [email protected] Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (c) Copyright 2022 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.