DTN Midday Grain Comments 06/13 10:51

DTN Midday Grain Comments 06/13 10:51 Corn, Soybean, Wheat Futures Lower at Midday Corn futures are 4 to 8 cents lower at midday Monday; soybean futures are 38 to 47 cents lower; wheat futures are 4 to 6 cents lower. David M. Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst MARKET SUMMARY: Corn futures are 4 to 8 cents lower at midday Monday; soybean futures are 38 to 47 cents lower; wheat futures are 4 to 6 cents lower. The U.S. stock market is sharply lower with the S&P down 125 points. The U.S. Dollar Index is 90 points higher. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are weaker with crude down 1.95 and natural gas down .35. Livestock trade is sharply lower with cattle seeing the most pressure. Precious metals are weaker with gold down 48.00. CORN: Corn futures are 4 to 8 cents lower with trade working the upper end of the recent range with short-term weather remaining supportive and outside market pressure spilling over. The WASDE on Friday had old-crop carryout at 1.485 billion bushels (bb) versus 1.437 bb expected and new at 1.400 bb versus 1.340 bb expected, up slightly from last month. Yields remained steady for this fall and world numbers were little changed except for new-crop world carryout rose by 5 million metric tons (mmt). Ethanol margins are likely to remain rangebound as unleaded holds the upper end of the range along with corn to support blender margins with slight contraction so far to start the week. Basis remains solid through most of the Corn Belt. The second crop in Brazil will head for the homestretch with the export season to ramp up soon, while U.S. weather continues to keep moisture in much of the Corn Belt short term with warmer and drier weather expected into the end of June, which will support crop development initially, but longer term will raise worries. Weekly export inspections faded a little to 1.120 mmt, with crop maturity likely catching up to average on emergence, and good to excellent expected to decline slightly. On the July contract chart, we have support at the lower Bollinger Band at $7.24, which we bounced back from early in the week with trade pushing back through the $7.67 20-day moving average. We have faded back this morning with $8.00 the next resistance area. SOYBEANS: Soybean futures are 38 to 47 cents lower with sliding product values pulling trade further from the upper end of the range to start the week. Mea1 is $10.00 to $11.00 lower, and oil is 140 to 160 points lower on talks of better palm oil exports. On the WASDE report, old-crop carryout was 205 million bushels (mb) versus 218 mb expected, and new at 280 mb versus 307 mb expected, both down slightly from last month. World numbers remained flat. South America is moving toward post-harvest footing at this point, with planting wrapping up except for double crop with warmer weather to push the crop back toward average maturity levels for this time of year, and good to excellent should be near the five-year average to start. Basis has held strength well at processors and exporters in recent days with the daily export wire quiet to end the week. Weekly export inspections showed improvement at 605,129 metric tons (mt). On the July soybean chart we are back testing the 20-day at $17.06 with the fresh high and the Upper Bollinger Band above the current action, at $17.63 and $17.84, respectively. WHEAT: Wheat futures are 4 to 6 cents lower at midday with trade fading off the highs in two-sided low volume action as harvest will continue to expand in the Northern Hemisphere with little change to the political situation and spillover from the outside markets. The WASDE report showed wheat carryout at 655 mb versus 666 mb of old crop and 626 mb of new crop versus 614 expected, with winter wheat production at 1.739 bu, up just slightly from last month. World numbers remained flat. Warmer Plains weather should continue to catch maturity up with harvest likely near the 5-year average Monday afternoon on USDA's weekly Crop Progress report. Conditions should remain mostly steady on the remaining crop, while spring wheat conditions will likely start strong with maturity still well behind average. The dollar continues to hold in the upper end of the range to affect export business with action moving back toward the highs Monday. Export inspections were rangebound at 388,847 mt. KC wheat is back to a 63-cent discount to Minneapolis in firmer action and 92-cent premium to Chicago in firmer action. The KC July chart has support at the multi-week low at $11.12 1/2, with the 20-day well above the market at $12.16. David Fiala can be reached at [email protected] Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (c) Copyright 2022 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.