DTN Midday Grain Comments 07/12 10:48

DTN Midday Grain Comments 07/12 10:48 Corn, Soybean, Wheat Futures Lower at Midday Corn futures are 21 to 23 cents lower at midday Tuesday; soybean futures are 31 to 33 cents lower; wheat futures are 9 to 17 cents lower. David M. Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst MARKET SUMMARY: Corn futures are 21 to 23 cents lower at midday Tuesday; soybean futures are 31 to 33 cents lower; wheat futures are 9 to 17 cents lower. The U.S. stock market is firmer with the DOW up 120 points. The U.S. Dollar Index is 2 points lower. Interest rate products are firmer. Energies are sharply lower with crude down 7.50. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are weaker with gold $1.10 lower. CORN: Corn futures are 21 to 23 cents lower at midday with early gains turning negative as outside influence and pre-report position-squaring overcame short-term weather forecasts and little change on the crop progress report. Short-term forecasts look dry for most with some showers expected to the north with above-normal temps expected later in the week. Weekly crop progress showed good to excellent at 64%, unchanged from last week, and poor to very poor at 10%, up 1%, with silking at 15% versus 25% on average, and 2% in the dough versus 3% on average. Ethanol margins are still strong even with the pullback in corn offsetting the pullback in unleaded for blenders short term. Basis will be watched to see if strength holds with spread action softening a bit in recent days. For the WASDE report today, trade is looking for yield at 177.025 bushels per acre (bpa) with old-crop carryout at 1.488 billion bushels (bb) and new at 1.442 bb, right in line with prior month. On the September chart, support is the fresh low at $5.82 with lower Bollinger Band just below that at $5.76, with the 20-day moving average above the market at $6.68. SOYBEANS: Soybean futures are 31 to 33 cents lower at midday with early gains turning to broad selling on concerns about further China lockdowns limiting demand with crush margins still struggling on the slump in veg oil prices. Meal is $2.00 to $3.00 lower and oil is 220 to 240 points lower. Biodiesel margins remain strong to keep some support under oil. South America is on post-harvest footing for shipping, while the bulk of the U.S. is three to four weeks from the key reproductive time frame. Basis is fading a bit at processors and exporters in recent days with the daily wire remaining quiet. Weekly crop progress showed good to excellent at 62% down 1% from last week, and poor to very poor at 9%, unchanged, with blooming at 32% versus 38% on average, and 6% setting pods versus 9% on average. On the report, trade is expected to see yields unchanged at 51.5 bpa with production edging lower on reduced acres with old-crop carryout at 208 million bushels (mb), in line with last month, and new crop at 211 mb, down 70 mb from last month. On the August soybean chart support is the fresh low at $14.24 with lower Bollinger Band at $14.32 with the 20-day moving average at $15.46 just above the Monday highs. WHEAT: Wheat futures are 9 to 17 cents lower at midday with trade seeing pressure from row crops along with some better short-term movement out of Ukraine and Russia with further grain corridor talks scheduled this week. Harvest will continue to push on in the U.S. and Plains weather should allow for harvest to push quickly towards the homestretch for winter wheat while Continental Europe struggles with short-term dryness again. The dollar is scoring fresh highs and short-term export business is expected to remain slow as major importers assess needs and shy away from trading in dollars. Winter wheat harvest was 63% complete versus 61% on average, while spring wheat was 4% better to 70% good to excellent and 44% headed versus 77% on average. The WASDE report is expected to show wheat carryout at 638 mb, up from 627 mb last month. The KC September chart has support at the fresh low at $8.32 1/2 scored Wednesday with the lower Bollinger Band at $8.03 and the 20-day moving average still well above the market at $10.01. David Fiala can be reached at [email protected] Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (c) Copyright 2022 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.