DTN Midday Grain Comments 07/19 11:20

DTN Midday Grain Comments 07/19 11:20 Corn, Soybean, Wheat Futures Lower at Midday Corn futures are 14 to 16 cents lower at midday Tuesday; soybean futures are 18 to 19 cents lower; wheat futures are 1 to 9 cents lower. David M. Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst MARKET SUMMARY: Corn futures are 14 to 16 cents lower at midday Tuesday; soybean futures are 18 to 19 cents lower; wheat futures are 1 to 9 cents lower. The U.S. stock market is firmer with the DOW up 525 points. The U.S. Dollar Index is 88 points lower. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are flat with crude down .25. Livestock trade is mostly higher. Precious metals are mixed with gold $1.50 higher. CORN: Corn futures are 14 to 16 cents lower at midday with selling developing as outside market momentum slowed, along with potentially improved weather in the extended forecast and no major crop progress surprises pull us back from the Monday gains; but we have firmed from the midmorning lows. Short-term forecasts are drier and warmer this week for most with potential improvement into the weekend for parts of the center of the Corn Belt. The export wire has remained limited with the strong dollar and better South American competition, but the sharp dollar reversal could help if sustained. Ethanol margins will continue to be compressed by falling driving demand short-term. Basis will be watched to see if strength holds with spread action firming a bit Tuesday morning. Weekly crop progress showed good to excellent unchanged at 64%, with poor to very poor up 1% to 11%. Maturity is still lagging at 37% silking versus 48% on average; 6% in the dough stage versus 7% average. On the September chart, support is the fresh low at $5.82 with the lower Bollinger Band just below that at $5.61. The 20-day moving average is above the market at $6.34. SOYBEANS: Soybean trade is 18 to 19 cents lower at midday, pulling back from the upper end of the range with oil momentum slowing and better forecast ideas into August; trade was able, however, to bounce off the morning lows. Meal is $1.00 to $2.00 lower and oil is 130 to 150 lower. Biodiesel margins remain positive, but have narrowed some with the break in diesel values. South America is on post-harvest footing for shipping, while the bulk of the U.S. is three to four weeks from the key reproductive time frame with better rains in the extended early August forecast. Basis is fading a bit at processors and exporters in recent days with the daily export wire remaining quiet. USDA;s weekly Crop Progress report showed good to excellent down 1% to 61% and 10% poor to very poor, up one percentage point. On the September soybean chart, support is the fresh low at $13.21 with lower Bollinger Band at $13.07; the 20-day moving average is $14.17, well above the market. WHEAT: Wheat futures are 1 to 9 cents lower overnight with spillover from the row crops limiting upside as trade awaits export corridor talk. The Egypt tender was canceled due to higher-than-expected prices, with trade bouncing back to positive at times this morning. Plains weather should allow for harvest to push to mostly wrap up, with planting moisture soon becoming a concern for the Southern Plains, while spring wheat areas saw mixed conditions. USDA;s weekly Crop Progress report showed winter wheat harvest at 70% versus 71% average. Spring wheat was rated 71% good to excellent, up 1 point. Poor to very poor was 1 point higher 6% with 68% headed versus 90% on average. The U.S. dollar is showing a reversal from long-term highs and short-term export business will be watched with the surprise strength last week. The KC September chart has support at the fresh low of $8.20, which we have found good buying from, with the lower Bollinger Band at $7.82 and the 20-day moving average still well above the market at $9.27. David Fiala can be reached at [email protected] Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (c) Copyright 2022 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.