DTN Midday Grain Comments 07/26 11:02

DTN Midday Grain Comments 07/26 11:02 Corn, Soybean, Wheat Futures Higher at Midday Corn futures are 6 to 7 cents higher at midday Tuesday; soybean futures are 19 to 29 cents higher; wheat futures are 25 to 32 cents higher. David M. Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst MARKET SUMMARY: Corn futures are 6 to 7 cents higher at midday Tuesday; soybean futures are 19 to 29 cents higher; wheat futures are 25 to 32 cents higher. The U.S. stock market is weaker with the DOW down 210 points. The U.S. Dollar Index is 65 points higher. Interest rate products are firmer. Energies are mixed with crude down .30. Livestock trade is weaker. Precious metals are mixed with gold $3.00 lower. CORN: Corn futures are 6 to 7 cents higher at midday with trade gapping higher on the overnight open as crop conditions declined and the second-week forecast remains concerning. In addition, oversold conditions eased with trade fading back from the early test of $6.00 nearby. Short-term forecasts are cooler with rains working in many of the drier areas over the next few days, with the second-week forecast showing warmer and drier for the western and central end of the Corn Belt again. The daily export wire has remained quiet with the strong dollar and better South American competition and the dollar still hanging near the highs. But China and Brazil are talking to open up potential corn exports sooner than next year again. Ethanol margins will continue to be compressed by falling driving demand short term ahead of maintenance season. Weekly crop progress showed good to excellent down 3% to 61% and 14% poor to very poor with silking at 62% versus 70% on average, and 13% in the dough versus 17% last year, with maturity continuing to lag average. Basis will be watched to see if strength holds with spread action soft Tuesday with many areas softening in recent days. On the September chart, support is the fresh low at $5.61 1/2, scored late in the session Friday, with the lower Bollinger Band just below that at $5.54 and the 20-day moving average above the market at $6.08. SOYBEANS: Soybean futures are 19 to 29 cents higher at midday with follow-through buying as we gapped higher on the overnight with August weather concerns and improving meal demand helping move trade. Meal is $7.00 to $8.00 higher and oil is 60 to 70 higher. Biodiesel margins remain positive but have narrowed some with the break in diesel values. South America is on post-harvest footing for shipping with their advantage to persist until September, while the bulk of the US is two to three weeks from the key reproductive timeframe with the first week of August looking drier for most. Basis is fading a bit at processors and exporters in recent days with the daily export wire mostly quiet. Weekly crop progress showed good to excellent 2% lower at 59% and poor to very poor at 11% with 64% blooming versus 69% on average, and 26% setting pods versus 39% last year. On the September soybean chart, support is the low at $13.04 1/2 with lower Bollinger Band at $12.84 and the 20-day moving average at $13.86, just above the market, which we have tested this morning. WHEAT: Wheat futures are 25 to 32 cents higher at midday with support from row crops, the easing of harvest pressure, and further port attacks in Ukraine. Plains weather should allow for harvest to push to mostly wrap up, with planting moisture soon becoming a concern for the Southern Plains with some relief this weekend and early this week, while spring wheat sees heat next week. Weekly conditions were off 3% on good to excellent at 68% and 8% poor to very poor, with 86% headed versus 96% on average while winter wheat was 77% harvested versus 80% on average. The dollar looks to chop just below the longer-term highs, and short-term export business will be watched with China and Pakistan actively sourcing European cargos with questions about how much Ukraine wheat will show up short term. The KC September chart has support at the fresh low at $8.14 1/2 with the lower Bollinger Band at $7.89 and the 20-day moving average still well above the market at $8.85. David Fiala can be reached at [email protected] Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (c) Copyright 2022 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.