DTN Midday Grain Comments 08/01 10:51

DTN Midday Grain Comments 08/01 10:51 Corn, Soybean, Wheat Futures Lower at Midday Corn futures are 19 to 21 cents lower at midday Monday; soybean futures are 65 to 72 cents lower; wheat futures are 24 to 27 cents lower. David M. Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst MARKET SUMMARY: Corn futures are 19 to 21 cents lower at midday Monday; soybean futures are 65 to 72 cents lower; wheat futures are 24 to 27 cents lower. The U.S. stock market is firmer with the DOW up 60 points. The U.S. Dollar Index is 60 points lower. Interest rate products are firmer. Energies are sharply weaker with crude down 5.00. Livestock trade is mixed with feeder cattle leading. Precious metals are mixed with gold $1.60 higher. CORN: Corn futures are 19 to 21 cents lower at midday to start the week with early gains turning to broad selling as fresh longs take profits ahead of a key weather week with some improvement in the forecast, along with changing outside market influences. Short-term forecasts show plentiful heat for the western half of the Corn Belt along with limited precipitation, while better coverage looks in place for the eastern half. The daily export wire has remained limited with the strong dollar and better South American competition short term. Ethanol margins will continue to be limited by driving demand with maintenance season to slow production. Basis will be watched to see how much further strength fades, especially with the board rally and harvest starting in the South. Weekly export inspections improved slightly at 856,938 metric tons (mt). Weekly crop progress is expected to show steady to slightly lower conditions, and maturity still lagging the five-year average. On the September chart, support is the fresh low at $5.61 1/2 scored late in the session Friday, with the lower Bollinger Band just below that at $5.60, with trade just below the 20-day moving average at $6.01 at midday and the upper Bollinger Band the next round up at $6.35. SOYBEANS: Soybean futures are 65 to 72 cents lower at midday with early gains quickly evaporating as long profit-taking picks up after the large rally last week as trade waits to see where demand goes short term, along with how the forecast evolves into midmonth as we begin pod fill and political tensions with China. Meal is $16.00 to $17.00 lower and oil is 245 to 265 points lower. Biodiesel margins remain positive but narrowing a bit with the rally. South America is on post-harvest footing for shipping with their advantage to persist until September, while the bulk of the U.S. is heading into the start of pod-fill season. Basis is fading a bit at processors and exporters in recent days with the daily export wire quiet to start the week. Weekly export inspections improved a touch at 555,083 mt. Weekly crop progress is expected to show steady to slightly lower conditions, with maturity still lagging the five-year average. On the September soybean chart, support is the 20-day moving average at $13.84, with Friday's spike high at $15.16 resistance as we fade back from that area. WHEAT: Wheat futures are 24 to 27 cents lower at midday with trade following the row crops lower with the first ships leaving Ukraine today in the first test of the grain corridor along with weaker European values. Plains weather looks warmer and drier this week with moisture needing to build before planting time, while spring wheat sees heat as the crop plays catch up. Weekly crop progress is expected to show steady conditions and heading nearly complete. The dollar remains in the upper end of the range but has been trending weaker. Short-term export business will be watched with China and Pakistan actively sourcing euro cargos with Russian origin starting to move to North Africa as harvest expands. Weekly export inspections were a bit soft at 256,601 mt. The KC September chart has resistance at the 20-day moving average, just above the market at $8.68, which faded past again, with the Lower Bollinger band at $8.15, the next round down. David Fiala can be reached at [email protected] Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (c) Copyright 2022 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.