DTN Midday Grain Comments 08/02 11:03

DTN Midday Grain Comments 08/02 11:03 Corn, Soybeans, Wheat Futures Lower at Midday Corn futures are 15 to 16 cents lower at midday Tuesday; soybean futures are 23 to 25 cents lower; wheat futures are 19 to 25 cents lower. David M. Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst MARKET SUMMARY: Corn futures are 15 to 16 cents lower at midday Tuesday; soybean futures are 23 to 25 cents lower; wheat futures are 19 to 25 cents lower. The U.S. stock market is weaker with the DOW down 220 points. The U.S. Dollar Index is 40 points higher. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are mixed with crude up .60. Livestock trade is weaker. Precious metals are mixed with gold $7.30 higher. CORN: Corn futures are 15 to 16 cents lower at midday with broad ag weakness continuing as trade fades back into near-term support levels as we wait for further weather and political developments. Short-term forecasts show plentiful heat for the western half of the Corn Belt along with limited precipitation, while better coverage looks in place for the eastern half with some back and forth in the forecast. The daily export wire has remained limited with the strong dollar and better South American competition short term. Ethanol margins will continue to be limited by driving demand with maintenance season to slow production. Basis will be watched to see how much further strength fades, especially with the board rally and harvest starting in the South. Weekly crop progress showed conditions unchanged at 61% good to excellent and 14% poor to very poor, with 80% silking versus 85% on average and 26% in the dough versus 31% on average. On the September chart, support is the fresh low at $5.61 1/2 scored late in the session Friday with the lower Bollinger Band just below that at $5.60, with trade below the 20-day moving average at $6.02 at midday and the upper Bollinger Band the next round up at $6.35. SOYBEANS: Soybean futures are 23 to 25 cents lower at midday with some two-sided action after trade washed out early with little change on crop progress, mixed forecasts, and China concerns before broad selling returned during the day trade. Meal is $6.00 to $7.00 higher and oil 205 to 225 points lower. Biodiesel margins remain positive but narrowing in recent days. South America is on post-harvest footing for shipping with their advantage to persist until September, while the bulk of the U.S. is heading into the start of pod fill season. Basis is fading a bit at processors and exporters in recent days with the export wire quiet to start the week. Weekly crop progress showed conditions 1% better at 60% good to excellent and 11% poor to very poor, with 79% blooming versus 80% on average, and 44% setting pods versus 51% on average. On the September soybean chart support is the 20-day moving average at $13.88, with Friday's spike high at $15.16 resistance as we fade back from that area. WHEAT: Wheat futures are 23 to 25 cents lower with broad ag weakness and little fresh news Tuesday morning with choppy range-bound action likely to continue short term until Black Sea clarity improves along with the beginning of spring wheat harvest pressure. Plains weather looks warmer and drier this week with moisture needing to be built before planting time with harvest at 82% versus 85% on average, while spring wheat sees heat as the crop plays catch up with weekly crop progress showing 70% good to excellent, up 2% and 7% poor to very poor with 97% headed versus 99% on average. The dollar remains in the upper end of the range but has been trending weaker, and short-term export business will be watched with China and Pakistan actively sourcing euro cargos with Russian origin starting to move to North Africa as harvest expands along with the first ships leaving Ukraine. Weekly export inspections were a bit soft at 256,601 metric tons (mt). The KC September chart has resistance at the 20-day moving average just above the market at $8.68, which we closed just below, with the Lower Bollinger band at $8.15, the next round down. David Fiala can be reached at [email protected] Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (c) Copyright 2022 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.