DTN Midday Grain Comments 08/09 10:54

DTN Midday Grain Comments 08/09 10:54 Grain Futures in the Green Midday Tuesday Corn trade is 9 to 10 cents higher; beans are 22 to 37 cents higher and wheat is flat to 6 cents higher. David M. Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst MARKET SUMMARY: Corn trade is 9 to 10 cents higher; beans are 22 to 37 cents higher and wheat is flat to 6 cents higher. The U.S. stock market is weaker with the Dow down 15 points. The U.S. Dollar Index is 0.25 lower. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are firmer with crude up $0.60. Livestock trade is mostly lower. Precious metals are mixed with gold $3.00 higher. CORN: Corn trade is 9 to 10 cents higher at midday Tuesday with trade gapping higher on condition declines, short-term forecasts and ideas of good commercial support as we head towards the WASDE report later in the week with action just off the highs at midday. Short-term forecasts show drier weather for most in the near term with higher-than-normal temperatures for the center and western parts of the belt with moderation expected the second week. The export wire showed some life again Tuesday with 132,000 metric tons sold to China for new crop. Ethanol margins will continue to be limited by driving demand and seasonal slowdowns with unleaded futures just off six-month lows to crimp blending margins if sustained. Basis will be watched to see how much further strength fades, especially with the board rally and harvest starts in the South. Weekly crop progress showed good to excellent down 3% to 58% good to excellent, with 16% poor to very poor while 90% was silking versus 93% on average, 45% in the dough, and 49% on average, and 6% dented vs. 9% on average. On the September chart, support is the fresh low at $5.61 1/2 scored two weeks ago with lower Bollinger Band just below that at $5.60, with trade holding back above the 20-day at $5.99 and the upper Bollinger Band is the next round up at $6.27, which we are just below. SOYBEANS: Soybean trade is 22 to 37 cents higher at midday with trade gapping higher as well on weather concerns and expectations of improved demand potentially into fall. Meal is $12.50 to $13.50 higher and oil is narrowly mixed. Biodiesel margins remain positive but narrowing in recent days. South America is on post-harvest footing for shipping with their advantage to persist until September, while the bulk of the U.S. is heading into the start of podfill season with warmer and drier weather for much of the belt this week before moderating after the mixed weekend rains with good to excellent 1% lower to 59% good to excellent, and 11% poor to very poor with 89% blooming versus 88% on average, and 61% setting pods versus 66% on average. Basis is fading a bit at processors and exporters in recent days as early harvest in the south draws closer. On the September soybean chart, support is the 20-day at $13.99 which we bounced off last week, with the upper Bollinger Band at $15.10 as the next round up, which we got close to overnight before fading a touch. WHEAT: Wheat trade is flat to 6 cents higher at midday with wheat following the gap in row crops higher before turning to two-sided, rangebound action with trade looking for confirmation on U.S. demand as spring wheat harvest gets going, along with how bushels flow out of the Black Sea and Europe short term. Weather in the Plains looks warmer and drier this week with moisture needing to build before planting time with late harvest lagging at 86% harvested versus 91% on average, and spring wheat 9% harvested versus 19% on average, with conditions off 6% on good to excellent to 64%, and poor to very poor at 8%, while spring wheat sees heat with harvest getting going and steady weekly conditions expected on the weekly report with maturity still well behind normal. The dollar remains near the highs which is likely to limit exports short term. The KC September chart has resistance at the 20-day above the market at $8.57 which we faded from yet again, with the lower Bollinger Band at $8.22 the next round down, which we held above so far. David Fiala can be reached at [email protected] Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (c) Copyright 2022 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.