DTN Midday Grain Comments 08/11 10:54

DTN Midday Grain Comments 08/11 10:54 Corn, Soybean, Wheat Futures Higher at Midday Corn futures are 6 to 7 cents higher at midday Thursday; soybean futures are 19 to 21 cents higher; wheat futures are 13 to 16 cents higher. David M. Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst MARKET SUMMARY: Corn futures are 6 to 7 cents higher at midday Thursday; soybean futures are 19 to 21 cents higher; wheat futures are 13 to 16 cents higher. The U.S. stock market is higher with the DOW up 180 points. The U.S. Dollar Index is 15 points lower. Interest rate products are mixed. Energies are firmer with crude up 1.00. Livestock trade is firmer. Precious metals are mixed with gold $10.00 lower. CORN: Corn futures are 6 to 7 cents higher at midday with trade continuing to see buying and firm spread trade as we work to balance weather and demand ahead of the Friday WASDE report with the short-term uptrend still intact. Short-term forecasts show drier weather for most in the near term with warmer-than-normal temperatures for the center and western parts of the Corn Belt with moderation expected the second week along with some better showers in the west. Weekly export sales remained soft at 191,800 metric tons (mt) of old crop and 191,300 mt of new crop. Ethanol margins will continue to be limited by driving demand and seasonal slowdowns with unleaded futures bouncing off six-month lows to crimp blending margins if sustained into fall. Basis will be watched to see how much further strength fades, especially with the board rally and harvest starts in the South. On the WASDE report, yield is expected to come in at 175.9 bushels per acre (bpa) with trade looking for demand cuts to balance the yield decrease, keeping carryout at 1.510 billion bushels (bb) for new crop. September chart support is the fresh low at $5.61 1/2 scored two weeks ago with the lower Bollinger Band just below that at $5.60, with trade holding back above the 20-day moving average at $6.01 and the upper Bollinger Band is the next round up at $6.32, which we are holding just below. SOYBEANS: Soybean futures are 19 to 21 cents higher at midday with trade working higher with flat to soft spread trade after we reversed off the highs Wednesday on improved forecast ideas with volatile back and forth trade likely to continue. Meal is $7.50 to $8.50 higher and oil is 150 to 160 points higher. On the WASDE report trade is looking for an average yield guess of 51.1 bpa, down just slightly from July with carryout at 226 million bushels (mb), remaining tight. Biodiesel margins remain positive but narrowing in recent days. South America is on post-harvest footing for shipping with their advantage to persist until September, while the bulk of the U.S. is heading into the start of pod-fill season with warmer and drier weather for much of the belt this week before moderating the next with mixed rain potential. Basis is fading a bit at processors and exporters in recent days as early harvest in the south draws closer. Mexico bought 104,300 mt of meal on the daily wire with weekly sales soft at -66,700 mt of old crop; 477,200 mt of new; products mixed on 90,900 mt of old-crop meal; and 311,200 mt of new meal; 600 of oil. On the September soybean chart support is the 20-day moving average at $14.21, which we are well above, with the upper Bollinger Band at $15.42, which we failed to hold above Wednesday. WHEAT: Wheat futures are 13 to 16 cents higher at midday with trade working to hold above resistance after the strong close Wednesday and little fresh news. Plains weather looks warmer and drier this week with moisture needing to be built before planting time with the second week looking better, while spring wheat sees heat with harvest hitting full stride short term. The dollar is fading further from the recent highs as the pace of inflation showed easing Thursday morning along with Black Sea potential still being watched as ships continue to trickle out of Ukraine. Weekly export sales were rangebound at 359,220 mt. The KC September chart had resistance at the 20-day moving average at $8.59, which we closed solidly above with trade looking to see if action can consolidate, with the upper Bollinger band at $8.94 the next round up. David Fiala can be reached at [email protected] Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (c) Copyright 2022 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.