DTN Midday Grain Comments 08/12 10:58

DTN Midday Grain Comments 08/12 10:58 Corn, Soybean Futures Higher at Midday; Wheat Lower Corn futures are 2 to 3 cents higher at midday Friday; soybean futures are 8 to 12 cents higher; wheat futures are 11 to 17 cents lower. David M. Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst MARKET SUMMARY: Corn futures are 2 to 3 cents higher at midday Friday; soybean futures are 8 to 12 cents higher; wheat futures are 11 to 17 cents lower. The U.S. stock market is sharply higher with the DOW up 180 points. The U.S. Dollar Index is 65 points higher. Interest rate products are firmer. Energies are mixed with crude down 2.25. Livestock trade is mostly lower. Precious metals are firmer with gold $3.00 higher. CORN: Corn futures are 2 to 4 cents higher with trade firming as spreads relax a little as we await the August WASDE numbers, along with seeking more consistency in the forecast. Short-term forecasts show drier weather for most with warmer-than-normal temperatures for the Center and Western Corn Belt with moderation expected the second week, along with some better showers in the west early next week. Ethanol margins will continue to be limited by driving demand and seasonal slowdowns with unleaded futures bouncing off six months lows to crimp blending margins if sustained into fall. Basis will be watched to see how much further strength fades, especially with the board rally and harvest starting in the South. On the WASDE report, yield is expected to come in at 175.9 bushels per acre (bpa) with trade looking for demand cuts to balance the yield decrease, keeping carryout at 1.510 billion bushels (bb) for new crop. September chart support is the 20-day moving average at $6.02 and the upper Bollinger Band is the next round up at $6.36, which we are holding just below. SOYBEANS: Soybean futures are 8 to 12 cents higher with consolidation of recent gains ahead of the report. The forecast remains fairly mixed short term as heat should abate out of the weekend with better rains in the west early next week. Meal is $7.50 to $8.50 higher and oil 15 to 25 points higher. On the WASDE report, trade is looking for an average yield guess of 51.1 bpa, down just slightly from July, with carryout at 226 million bushels (mb), remaining tight. Biodiesel margins remain positive but narrowing in recent days. South America is on post-harvest footing for shipping with their advantage to persist until September, while the bulk of the U.S. is heading into the start of pod-fill season with concerns about short-term stress still in place. Basis has rebounded with the old-crop strength the last couple days as well. On the September soybean chart, support is the 20-day moving average at $14.29, which we are well above, with the Upper Bollinger Band at $15.52, which we have faded from. WHEAT: Wheat futures are 11 to 17 cents lower with long profit-taking ahead of the report in low volume trade so far as trade works to consolidate above nearby support with action firming a bit towards the report. Plains weather looks warmer and drier this week with moisture needing to be built before planting time with the second week looking better, while spring wheat sees heat with harvest, getting hitting full stride short term. The dollar is rebounding a bit this morning as the pace of inflation showed easing Friday morning along with Black Sea potential still being watched as ships continue to trickle out of Ukraine. The KC September chart had resistance at the 20-day moving average at $8.61, which we bounced off of this morning with trade looking to see if action can consolidate, with the Upper Bollinger band at $8.97, the next round up, which we tested Thursday. David Fiala can be reached at [email protected] Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (c) Copyright 2022 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.