DTN Midday Grain Comments 08/16 10:52

DTN Midday Grain Comments 08/16 10:52 Corn, Soybean, Wheat Futures All Lower at Midday Corn futures are 14 to 16 cents lower at midday Tuesday; soybean futures are 29 to 39 cents lower; and wheat futures are 5 to 8 cents lower. David M. Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst MARKET SUMMARY: Corn futures are 14 to 16 cents lower at midday Tuesday; soybean futures are 29 to 39 cents lower; and wheat futures are 5 to 8 cents lower. The U.S. stock market is mixed with the DOW up 175 points. The U.S. Dollar Index is 5 points lower. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are mostly weaker with crude down 2.30. Livestock trade is mixed with cattle leading. Precious metals are weaker with gold $7.50 lower. CORN: Corn futures are 14 to 16 cents lower at midday with active range-bound trade continuing to chop lower. There were some rains in the Western Corn Belt overnight with little fresh news on the weekly crop progress report and pressure from the energies. Short-term forecasts have the center of the belt drier with milder temperatures. Ethanol margins will continue to be limited by driving demand and seasonal slowdowns with unleaded futures finding support in recent days. Basis will be watched to see how much further strength fades, especially with the board rally and harvest starts in the South noting mixed to lower yields and aflatoxin concerns so far. Weekly USDA Crop Progress showed 1% to 57% good to excellent; poor to very poor unchanged at 16%; 94% silked versus 97% on average; 62% in the dough versus 71% average; 16% dented versus 20% average. On the September chart support is the 20-day moving average at $6.05 and the upper Bollinger Band is the next round up at $6.42. SOYBEANS: Soybean futures are 29 to 39 cents lower with trade fading back to nearby support levels as immediate weather concerns ease and questions remain about short-term demand. Meal is $13.00 to $14.00 lower and oil is 140 to 150 points lower. Biodiesel margins remain positive but narrowing in recent days. South America is on post-harvest footing for shipping with their advantage to persist until September. The daily export wire showed Mexico securing 228,606 metric tons (mt) of new crop. The bulk of the U.S. is heading into the start of pod-fill season with less-stressful weather this week. NOPA crush remained solid last month and is expected to hold up well until harvest. Basis has been more mixed as we head toward harvest. Weekly crop progress showed conditions 1 percentage point lower on good to excellent at 58%; 12% poor to very poor; 93% blooming, equal to average; 74% setting pods versus 77% average. On the September soybean chart support is the 20-day moving average at $14.40, which we are well above, while November has faded through the 20-day moving average at $13.96, with the Upper Bollinger Band at $15.67, which we have faded from. WHEAT: Wheat futures are 5 to 8 cents lower at midday with strength overnight and early in the day session turning to selling as row crops faded as wheat continues to carve out a near-term range. Plains weather looks for better short-term moisture with deficits needing to be eased ahead of planting. Spring wheat harvest should expand significantly this week. The dollar is rebounding a bit with mixed inflation ideas along with Black Sea potential still being watched as ships continue to trickle out of Ukraine along with Egypt, making some purchases without tenders while MATIF values fade a bit in low volume. Weekly crop progress should show winter wheat harvest at 90% complete versus 94% on average; spring wheat 16% complete versus 35% on average; 64% good to excellent; 6% poor to very poor, unchanged. The KC September chart has support at the 20-day moving average of $8.62, which trade bounced off the last two sessions, with the Upper Bollinger band at $9.00, the next round up. David Fiala can be reached at [email protected] Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (c) Copyright 2022 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.