DTN Midday Grain Comments 09/07 10:56

DTN Midday Grain Comments 09/07 10:56 Corn Futures Mixed at Midday; Soybeans, Wheat Higher Corn futures are narrowly mixed at midday Wednesday; soybean futures are 4 to 6 cents higher; wheat futures are 12 to 33 cents higher. David M. Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst MARKET SUMMARY: Corn futures are narrowly mixed at midday Wednesday; soybean futures are 4 to 6 cents higher; wheat futures are 12 to 33 cents higher. The U.S. stock market is firmer with the DOW up 235 points. The U.S. Dollar Index is 5 points lower. Interest rate products are firmer. Energies are weaker with crude down 3.40. Livestock trade is firmer. Precious metals are mixed with gold $8.40 higher. CORN: Corn futures are narrowly mixed with trade pushing back towards the recent highs on wheat spillover early before fading as early harvest pressure and weaker energies begin to weigh on trade at midday. Short-term forecasts have the center of the belt drier with warmer temps short-term setting the stage for early harvest expansion to accelerate into midmonth. USDA's weekly Crop Progress report showed good to excellent unchanged at 54% and 19% poor to very poor; 92% in the dough versus 93% on average; 63% dented versus 67% on average; 15% mature versus 19% last year. The export wire will be watched for business as the extent of weekly action will remain unclear through Sept. 15 with 257,400 metric tons (mt) of mostly 22-23 crop announced as sold to Mexico. Ethanol margins will continue to see pressure from corn, firm natural gas, and softer unleaded futures seasonally, but harvest basis will soon provide support in many areas to boost profitability. Basis will be watched to see how quickly we go to harvest footing and how aggressively the west will bid for corn in the deficit areas into early harvest with little change to start the week. On the December chart, trade remains below the Upper Bollinger band at $6.96 with $7.00 the next level up, with the 20-day moving average well below the market at $6.47. SOYBEANS: Soybean futures are 5 to 7 cents higher at midday with trade working to hold $14.00 with spillover support from grains starting to fade at midday. Argentina selling incentives and the strong dollar are limiting the upside, especially as the Brazilian real slips in value. Meal is $9.00 to $10.00 higher and oil is 80 to 90 points lower. South America is moving toward planting preparation as the export advantage will shift to the U.S. over the next few weeks. Even with dollar strength, harvest is likely to expand quickly with the forecast pushing maturity short term. Basis will continue to shift toward harvest footing with trade watching to see how quickly export shipments pick up. Weekly crop progress left good to excellent unchanged at 57%, with 13% poor to very poor; 94% setting pods versus 96% on average; 10% dropping leaves versus 14% on average. On the November soybean chart, resistance is the 20-day moving average at $14.24, which we faded below last week, with the Lower Bollinger Band at $13.75, below the market. WHEAT: Wheat futures are 12 to 33 cents higher at midday on renewed concern about the Ukraine grain corridor closing again helping trade to shake off the stronger dollar so far with trade fading off the early highs. Plains weather looks dry and warm short term with moisture needed soon for emergence. Planting is 3% complete, same as average; spring wheat harvest will continue to move along, hitting 71% versus 83% on average. The dollar is testing the highs with interest rate outlooks remaining in focus with MATIF prices remaining mostly rangebound but moving back to the upper end of the range Wednesday morning. Fertilizer production in Europe will continue to be watched as well with some plants offline again. The KC December chart has support at the 20-day moving average at $8.79, which we took off from overnight, with the lower Bollinger Band at $8.33 as further support and the Upper Bollinger band at $9.25 as resistance, which we faded back from a test of Wednesday morning. David Fiala can be reached at [email protected] Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (c) Copyright 2022 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.