DTN Midday Grain Comments 09/08 10:48

DTN Midday Grain Comments 09/08 10:48 Corn, Soybean, Wheat Futures Lower at Midday Corn futures are 8 to 10 cents lower at midday Thursday; soybean futures are 5 to 7 cents lower; wheat futures are 8 to 18 cents lower. David M. Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst MARKET SUMMARY: Corn futures are 8 to 10 cents lower at midday Thursday; soybean futures are 5 to 7 cents lower; wheat futures are 8 to 18 cents lower. The U.S. stock market is firmer with the DOW up 155 points. The U.S. Dollar Index is 5 points higher. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are mixed with crude up 1.40. Livestock trade is firmer. Precious metals are mixed with gold $8.70 lower. CORN: Corn futures are 8 to 10 cents lower at midday with trade fading off the upper end of the range as selling picked up early in the day session as broader selling picked up as the dollar fired off the lows. Short-term forecasts have the center of the Corn Belt drier with warmer temps except for this weekend, setting the stage for early harvest expansion to accelerate into midmonth. The export wire will be watched for business as the extent of weekly action will remain unclear through Sept. 15, with nothing hitting the wire Thursday. Ethanol margins will continue to see pressure from corn, firm natural gas, and softer unleaded futures seasonally, but harvest basis will soon provide support in many areas to boost profitability with the weekly report showing production 19,000 barrels per day (bpd) higher; stocks were 395,000 barrels lower. Basis will be watched to see how quickly we go to harvest footing and how aggressively the west will bid for corn in the deficit areas into early harvest. On the December chart, trade is remains below the Upper Bollinger band at $6.96 with $7.00 the next level up, with the 20-day moving average well below the market at $6.49. SOYBEANS: Soybean futures are 5 to 7 cents lower with trade consolidating further in the lower end of the range and unable to sustain action above $14.00 so far this week with export announcements slowing, Argentine bushels moving, and negative energies spillover. Meal is .50 to $1.50 higher, and oil is narrowly mixed. South America is moving toward planting preparation as the export advantage will shift to the U.S. over the next few weeks even with dollar strength with harvest likely to expand quickly with the forecast pushing maturity short term. Basis will continue to shift toward harvest footing with trade watching to see how quickly export shipments pick up. On the November soybean chart, resistance is the 20-day moving average at $14.21, which we faded below last week, with the Lower Bollinger Band at $13.68, below the market. WHEAT: Wheat futures are 8 to 18 cents lower at midday after early strength fades with trade working to consolidate the recent rebound as the dollar turns to two-sided trade, along with the short-term weather forecast for planting Northern Hemisphere winter wheat and what kind of export pace we see out of the Black Sea, short-term. Plains weather looks dry and warm short term with moisture needed soon for emergence with spring wheat harvest to head into the homestretch. The dollar is testing the highs with interest rate outlooks remaining in focus with MATIF prices remaining mostly rangebound. Fertilizer production in Europe will continue to be watched as well with some plants offline again. The KC December chart has support at the 20-day moving average of $8.80, which we bounced from Wednesday, with the lower Bollinger Band at $8.33 as further support and the Upper Bollinger band at $9.27 as resistance, which we faded back from Wednesday. David Fiala can be reached at [email protected] Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (c) Copyright 2022 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.