DTN Midday Grain Comments 09/12 10:51

DTN Midday Grain Comments 09/12 10:51 Soybean Futures Higher at Midday; Corn, Wheat Futures Lower Corn futures are 2 to 3 cents lower at midday Monday; soybean futures are 6 to 8 cents higher; wheat futures are 7 to 16 cents lower. David M. Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst MARKET SUMMARY: Corn futures are 2 to 3 cents lower at midday Monday; soybean futures are 6 to 8 cents higher; wheat futures are 7 to 16 cents lower. The U.S. stock market is firmer with the DOW up 315 points. The U.S. Dollar Index is 80 points lower. Interest rate products are firmer. Energies are firmer with crude up .90. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are firmer with gold $12.00 higher. CORN: Corn futures are 2 to 3 cents lower at midday with two-sided trade to start the week ahead of the WASDE report released at 11 a.m. CDT, with outside market support and position squaring. Short-term forecasts have the center of the belt drier with warmer temps to keep harvest expansion moving along. On the WASDE report, yield is expected to fade to 172.5 bushels per acre (bpa) from 175.4 bpa last month; new-crop carryout is expected at 1.217 billion bushels (bb). The export wire will be watched for business as the extent of weekly action will remain unclear through Sept. 15. Export inspections Monday were still soft at 446,620 metric tons (mt). Weekly crop progress is expected to show steady conditions with national maturity still lagging the five-year average, while harvest progress is very near average. Ethanol margins will continue to see pressure from corn, firm natural gas, and softer unleaded futures seasonally, but harvest basis will soon provide support in many areas to boost profitability. Basis will be watched to see how quickly we go to harvest footing and how aggressively the west will bid for corn in the deficit areas into early harvest with some areas starting to show more strength with rail strikes a potential wild card. On the December chart, trade remains below the Upper Bollinger band at $7.03 as the next level up, with the 20-day moving average well below the market at $6.54. SOYBEANS: Soybean futures are 6 to 8 cents higher at midday with trade remaining in the lower end of the range in pre-report action with little other fresh news besides a bit of position squaring. Meal futures are $5.50 to $6.50 higher and oil futures 55 to 65 points higher. South America is moving toward planting preparation with bushels moving on Argentina currency incentives last week as the sliding dollar should start the progress of shifting business back to the U.S. into fall. On the WASDE report, trade is looking for yield at 51.5 bpa versus 51.9 bpa last month for a carryout at 247 mb. Basis will continue to shift toward harvest footing with trade watching to see how quickly export shipments pick up into the end of the month. Weekly export inspections remained soft at 329,225 mt with weekly crop progress expected to show steady conditions with maturity still just off the five-year average. On the November soybean chart, resistance is the 20-day moving average at $14.17, which we faded below last week, with the Lower Bollinger Band at $13.68, below the market. WHEAT: Wheat futures are 7 to 16 cents lower at midday with two-sided action giving way to pre-report selling as trade looks to consolidate the upper end of the range further. Little change is expected on the WASDE report, while winter wheat planting waits for better moisture and spring wheat harvest wraps up as political issues continue to linger. The WASDE report is expected to show wheat carryout at 618 mb versus 610 mb last month. Weekly export inspections were strong at 736,515 mt, with crop progress expected to show planting for winter wheat near the five-year average, while spring wheat harvest is down to the last 15%. The dollar is well off the recent highs with interest rate outlooks remaining in focus with MATIF prices touching the upper end of the range as well before fading a bit. Fertilizer production in Europe will continue to be watched as well, with some plants offline again. The KC December chart has support at the 20-day moving average at $8.83, which we bounced from last week, with the lower Bollinger Band at $8.30 as further support and the Upper Bollinger band at $9.36 as resistance, which we touched overnight. David Fiala can be reached at [email protected] Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (c) Copyright 2022 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.