DTN Midday Grain Comments 09/13 10:50

DTN Midday Grain Comments 09/13 10:50 Mixed Trade for Corn and Soybeans; Wheat Higher Corn trade is narrowly mixed; beans are narrowly mixed and wheat is 13 to 19 cents higher. David M. Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst MARKET SUMMARY: Corn trade is narrowly mixed; beans are narrowly mixed and wheat is 13 to 19 cents higher. The U.S. stock market is weaker with the Dow down 855 points. The U.S. Dollar Index is 1.20 points higher. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are mixed with crude down .50. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are weaker with gold $25.00 lower. CORN: Corn trade is narrowly mixed at midday Tuesday with trade struggling to push past the $7.00 area on the December contract as it works into resistance with support from soybean action post-report and the stronger dollar starting to provide head winds. Short-term forecasts have the center of the belt drier with higher temps short term to keep harvest expansion moving along. On the WASDE report, yield came in at 172.5 bushels per acre (bpa), down from 175.4 bpa last month along with harvested acres declining by 1.0 million and new crop carryout at 1.219 billion bushels, 5 million below expected with world stocks at 304.5 million metric tons versus 306.7 million metric tons last month. The export wire will be watched for business as the extent of weekly action will remain unclear through September 15th with nothing hitting the wire Tuesday. Weekly crop progress showed good to excellent down 1% to 53%, and 20% poor to very poor; 25% mature versus 35% on average and 5% harvested versus 4% on average. Ethanol margins will continue to see pressure from corn, firm natural gas and softer unleaded futures seasonally, but harvest basis will soon provide support in many areas to boost profitability. Basis will be watched to see how quickly we go to harvest footing and how aggressively the West will bid for corn in the deficit areas into early harvest with some areas starting to show more strength with rail strikes a potential wild card into harvest. On the December chart, trade is remains below the upper Bollinger Band at $7.10 as the next level up, with the 20-day well below the market at $6.58. SOYBEANS: Soybean trade is narrowly mixed at midday with trade pushing back to the $15.00 area after the strong move higher post-report before fading on the dollar strength post-inflation report along with demand concerns at these price levels. Meal is $4.50 to $5.50 lower and oil is 0.35 cent to 0.55 cent higher. South America is moving towards planting preparation with late demand picking up ahead of the U.S. export window. On the WASDE report, yield dropped 50.5 bpa versus 51.5 bpa last month with 650,000 less harvested acres with carryout falling to 200 million from 245 last month, while world numbers at 98.9 million metric tons versus 101.4 million metric tons. Basis will continue to shift towards harvest footing with trade watching to see how quickly export shipments pick up into the end of the month. Weekly crop progress showed good to excellent down 1% to 56%, and 15% poor to very poor with 22% dropping leaves versus 28% on average. On the November soybean chart, trade has the upper Bollinger Band at $14.92 as resistance with the $15.00 area the next level up. WHEAT: Wheat trade is 13 to 19 cents higher at midday with trade pushing to fresh highs for the move with weather and political concerns and spread unwinding offsetting the dollar strength and row crops fading. The WASDE report left wheat carryout unchanged at 610 million bushels, and world stocks slightly higher at 268.6 million metric tons versus 267.3 mmt last month. Weekly crop progress showed planting for winter wheat at 10% versus 7% on average, and spring wheat harvest at 85% complete versus 89% on average. The dollar back near the recent highs with interest rate outlooks remaining in focus with MATIF prices touching the upper end of the range as well. Fertilizer production in Europe will continue to be watched as well with some plants offline again. The KC December chart has support at the 20-day at $8.85 which we bounced from last week, and the upper Bollinger Band at $9.44 as resistance which we touched overnight. David Fiala can be reached at [email protected] Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (c) Copyright 2022 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.