DTN Midday Grain Comments 09/19 11:02

DTN Midday Grain Comments 09/19 11:02 Corn, Wheat Futures Lower at Midday; Soybeans Higher Corn futures are 4 to 5 cents lower at midday Monday; soybean futures are 4 to 6 cents higher; wheat futures are 26 to 36 cents lower. David M. Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst MARKET SUMMARY: Corn futures are 4 to 5 cents lower at midday Monday; soybean futures are 4 to 6 cents higher; wheat futures are 26 to 36 cents lower. The U.S. stock market is weaker with the DOW down 35 points. The U.S. Dollar Index is 3 points lower. Interest rate products are mostly lower. Energies are mixed with crude down .50. Livestock trade is mostly higher. Precious metals are mixed with gold $1.00 higher. CORN: Corn futures are 4 to 5 cents lower at midday to start the week with trade continuing to see early harvest pressure along with negative outside market spillover to push trade to the lower end of the range. Short-term forecasts have the center of the belt drier with warmer temps to keep harvest expansion moving along with occasional showers to slow some areas. Weekly crop progress is likely to show steady conditions, national maturity just behind the five-year average, and harvest just ahead of average. The export wire was quiet again after the catch-up number Thursday with weekly inspections in line with recent weeks with corn at 549,354 metric tons (mt). Ethanol margins will likely chop along with softer driving demand offsetting cheaper corn values short-term as harvest basis helps. Basis will be watched to see how quickly we go to harvest footing, and how aggressively the west will bid for corn in the deficit areas into early harvest with some areas starting to show more strength in some areas. On the December chart, trade remains below the Upper Bollinger band at $7.01 as the next level up, with the 20-day moving average just the below the market at $6.69. SOYBEANS: Soybean futures are 4 to 6 cents higher at midday with trade settling into the middle of the recent range with harvest set to expand short term, nearby demand remaining somewhat slow, and early planting progress in South America. Meal is $7.50 to $8.50 higher and oil is 80 to 100 points lower. South America is moving toward planting preparation with late demand picking up ahead of the U.S. export window with Brazil seeing better rain than Argentina to start. Basis will continue to shift toward harvest footing with trade watching to see how quickly export shipments pick up into the end of the month with some further near-term basis pressure expected. The daily wire saw 136,000 mt announced to China after the catch-up sales with more action needed soon and weekly export inspections remaining range-bound at 518,743 mt. Weekly crop progress is expected to show steady conditions, with maturity and harvest progress near the five-year averages. On the November soybean chart, trade has the Upper Bollinger Band at $14.93 as resistance with the $15.00 area the next level up, and the 20-day moving average below the market at $14.35. WHEAT: Wheat futures are 26 to 36 cents lower at midday with trade fading back toward support with little fresh bullish news as outside market and row-crop spillover is negative and early planting will continue to move forward. Spring wheat harvest is on the home stretch with winter wheat planting to accelerate in the next week with moisture remaining in short supply for most with some areas of scattered showers across the Plains with the planting pace likely to remain near average. The dollar is back near the recent highs with interest rate outlooks remaining in focus with MATIF prices fading off the upper end of the range with grain corridor talks back in the news but little change so far. Weekly export inspections remaining solid at 790,145 mt. The KC December chart has support at the 20-day moving average at $9.02, which we are testing at midday, and the Upper Bollinger band at $9.51 as resistance, which we faded from last week. David Fiala can be reached at [email protected] Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (c) Copyright 2022 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.