DTN Midday Grain Comments 09/20 10:46

DTN Midday Grain Comments 09/20 10:46 Grains Higher at Midday Corn trade is 13 to 14 cents higher, beans are 20 to 22 cents higher and wheat is 30 to 41 cents higher. David M. Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst MARKET SUMMARY: The U.S. stock market is weaker with the Dow down 315 points. The dollar index is 30 points higher. Interest rate products are mostly lower. Energies are mixed with crude down $1.30. The livestock trade is mostly higher. Precious metals are weaker with gold $4 lower. CORN: Corn trade is 13 to 15 cents higher at midday with corn following wheat higher on renewed political concerns as harvest will continue to expand short term as we stay just below the recent highs from last week. Short-term weather forecasts have the center of the Corn Belt drier with warmer temps short-term to keep harvest expansion moving along with occasional showers to slow some areas. The weekly Crop Progress report showed good-to-excellent conditions down 1 percentage point to 52%, with 22% poor to very poor, 87% dented vs. 88% on average, 40% mature vs. 45% on average, and 7% harvested vs. 9% on average. The export wire remains quiet short-term. Ethanol margins will likely chop along with softer driving demand offsetting cheaper corn values short term as harvest basis helps. Basis will be watched to see how quickly we go to harvest footing and how aggressively the west will bid for corn in the deficit areas into early harvest with some areas starting to show more strength. On the December chart, trade remains below the Upper Bollinger band at $7.01 as the next level up, with the 20-day just below the market at $6.73. SOYBEANS: Soybean trade is 20 to 22 cents higher at midday with early losses turning to gains as trade follows the grains along with meal strength during the day session. Meal is 11.00 to 12.00 higher, and oil is 30 to 40 points higher, keeping crush margins stable. South America is moving toward planting preparation with late demand picking up ahead of the U.S. export window. Brazil is seeing better rain than Argentina to start. Basis will continue to shift toward harvest footing with the trade watching to see how quickly export shipments pick up into the end of the month. Some further near-term basis pressure is expected. The daily wire was quiet after the small sale to start the week. Weekly Crop Progress showed good-to-excellent conditions down 1 point to 55%, with 15% poor to very poor. The crop is 42% dropping leaves vs. 47% on average and 3% harvested vs. 5% last year. On the November soybean chart, trade has the Upper Bollinger Band at $14.93 as resistance with the $15 area the next level up, and the 20-day below the market at $14.37. WHEAT: Wheat trade is 30 to 41 cents higher with trade continuing to watch winter wheat planting progress, and export movement out of the Black Sea along with how events continue to develop on the ground as we push back toward the highs seen last week. Spring wheat harvest is on the homestretch with 94% complete. Winter wheat planting is at 21% complete vs. 17% on average and 2% emerged vs. 2% on average with moisture remaining in short supply for most with some areas of scattered showers across the Plains short term. The dollar is back near the recent highs with interest rate outlooks remaining in focus with MATIF prices snapping back to the upper end of the range on the political concerns. The KC December chart has support at the 20-day at $9.04, which we tested Monday, and the Upper Bollinger band at 9.51 as resistance, which we faded from last week. David Fiala can be reached at [email protected] Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (c) Copyright 2022 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.