DTN Midday Grain Comments 09/27 10:57

DTN Midday Grain Comments 09/27 10:57 Corn, Soybean Futures Higher at Midday; Wheat Lower Corn futures are 5 to 6 cents higher at midday Tuesday; soybean futures are 9 to 11 cents higher; wheat futures are 17 to 22 cents lower. David M. Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst MARKET SUMMARY: Corn futures are 5 to 6 cents higher at midday Tuesday; soybean futures are 9 to 11 cents higher; wheat futures are 17 to 22 cents lower. The U.S. stock market is flat with the DOW up 45 points. The U.S. Dollar Index is 15 points lower. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are firmer with crude up 2.40. Livestock trade is weaker with hogs the downside leader. Precious metals are firmer with gold $8.00 higher. CORN: Corn futures are 5 to 6 cents higher at midday with trade working back from Monday's weakness with a more risk-on appetite, while harvest pressure and dollar strength will likely continue to limit upside as trade fades from the highs of the session. Short-term forecasts have the center of the belt drier with warmer-than-normal temps over the next couple of weeks. Crop progress showed 12% harvested versus 14% on average; maturity at 58% lags the average at 61%; good to excellent condition at 52% and 21% poor to very poor, unchanged on the week. The export wire will need to show more life soon with nothing to start the week. Ethanol margins will likely chop along with softer driving demand and corn values keeping pressure on for now with natural gas fading a little to add support. Basis will be watched to see how quickly we go to harvest footing everywhere and how aggressively the west will bid for corn in the deficit areas into early harvest with some areas starting to show more strength. On the December chart, trade is just below the 20-day moving average at $6.78 with the lower Bollinger Band at $6.58 as support. SOYBEANS: Soybean futures are 9 to 11 cents higher at midday with trade still working in the lower end of the range. Better outside markets are adding support Tuesday morning with harvest pressure and demand concerns likely to keep upside limited near term. Meal is $1.50 to $2.50 lower, and oil is 60 to 70 points higher. South America has early planting underway with late demand picking up ahead of the U.S. export window with the stronger dollar potentially pushing that further out. Brazil is in better shape than Argentina early, although Argentina has aggressively moved last year's soybeans in recent days. Basis will continue to shift toward harvest footing with trade watching to see how quickly export shipments pick up into the end of the month with some further near-term basis pressure expected into October. The daily wire has been quiet recently. Weekly crop progress showed 63% dropping leaves versus 65% on average; 8% harvested versus 13% on average; conditions unchanged at 55% good to excellent and 15% poor to very poor. On the November soybean chart, trade has the 20-day moving average at $14.34, which we closed below Friday at resistance, with the lower Bollinger band at $13.73 as support. WHEAT: Wheat futures are 17 to 22 cents higher at midday with the softer dollar. Attacks on Odessa are bringing back buying in low volume with little confirmed damage at this point. But it continues to add to the murky political situation going forward. Spring wheat harvest is effectively wrapped up on the weekly report at 96%. Winter wheat planting is expanding with needed rains in some of the growing areas with 31% planted versus 30% on average; 9% emerged versus 6% on average. MATIF wheat remains near the upper end of the range with some light buying Tuesday morning. The KC December chart has support at the 20-day moving average of $9.24, and the Upper Bollinger band at $9.84 as resistance. David Fiala can be reached at [email protected] Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (c) Copyright 2022 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.