DTN Midday Grain Comments 10/03 10:52

DTN Midday Grain Comments 10/03 10:52 Corn Futures Lower at Midday; Soybeans Higher; Wheat Mixed Corn futures are 1 to 2 cents lower at midday Monday; soybean futures are 6 to 7 cents higher; wheat futures are narrowly mixed. David M. Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst MARKET SUMMARY: Corn futures are 1 to 2 cents lower at midday Monday; soybean futures are 6 to 7 cents higher; wheat futures are narrowly mixed. The U.S. stock market is firmer with the DOW up 660 points. The U.S. Dollar Index is 60 points lower. Interest rate products are firmer. Energies are mixed with crude up 3.20, and natural gas is off .35. Livestock trade is mostly stronger with cattle leading. Precious metals are firmer with gold up 28.00. CORN: Corn futures are 1 to 2 cents lower at midday with trade working back to the middle of the range after the soft close Friday with harvest pressure and near-term demand to remain in focus this week along with outside markets with early strength fading. The stocks report was friendly with 1.38 billion bushels (bb) on hand versus 1.512 bb expected. Short-term forecasts have the center of the belt drier with warmer-than-normal temps over the next couple of weeks to keep harvest moving along. Progress on the weekly report is likely to remain just behind average along with maturity and conditions remaining steady. The export wire will need to show more life soon with nothing hitting last week. Weekly export inspections were disappointing at 661,658 metric tons (mt) with river issues remaining notable for shipping. Ethanol margins will likely chop along with softer driving demand and refinery disruptions to keep upside limited for now. Basis will be watched to see how quickly we go to harvest footing everywhere, and how aggressively the west will bid for corn in the deficit areas into early harvest with notable strength already while intra-month spreads remain off the highs. On the December chart, trade is just below the 20-day moving average at $6.78 and the recent high at $6.95 above that with the lower Bollinger Band at $6.59 as further support. SOYBEANS: Soybean futures are 6 to 7 cents higher with trade working to establish support after the washout Friday with continued harvest progress in the U.S., and planting progress in South America as demand concerns continue to linger. Meal is $1.00 to $2.00 lower and oil is 155 to 175 points higher. The stocks report showed 274 million bushels (mb) on hand versus 242 mb expected. South America has early planting underway with late demand picking up ahead of the U.S. export window with the dollar reversal needing to hold with Brazil in better shape than Argentina early on with varied short-term rain potential. Basis will continue to shift towards harvest footing with trade watching to see how quickly export shipments pick up into the end of the month with some further near-term basis pressure expected into October along with intramonth spread weakness adding carry in recent days. The daily wire saw some life with 110,000 mt booked by unknown, increasing the demand concerns short term. Export inspections were disappointing at 575,220 mt. Weekly crop progress is expected to show harvest near the five-year average, and steady conditions. On the November soybean chart, trade has the 20-day moving average at $14.28 as resistance well above the market, with the lower Bollinger band at $13.54 as support. WHEAT: Wheat futures are narrowly mixed with trade working to consolidate at the higher end of the range as trade waits for Northern Hemisphere crop planting and development along with further Black Sea developments to set direction with a test of the highs this morning before action faded. Wheat stocks were 1.78 bb versus 1.776 bb expected keeping support in place. The Plains look dry short term, but enough recent rains fell in some areas to keep planting moving forward with just above average progress expected with spring harvest likely wrapped up. MATIF wheat remains near the upper end of the range with choppy action to start the week backing off the highs as well. Weekly export inspections were solid at 667,577 mt. The KC December chart has support at the 20-day moving average at $9.43, and the fresh high at $10.09 as resistance which we faded from this morning. David Fiala can be reached at [email protected] Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (c) Copyright 2022 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.