DTN Midday Grain Comments 10/04 10:53

DTN Midday Grain Comments 10/04 10:53 Corn, Soybean Futures Higher at Midday; Wheat Steady-Lower Corn futures are 5 to 6 cents higher at midday Tuesday; soybean futures are 13 to 15 cents higher; wheat futures are flat to 9 cents lower. David M. Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst MARKET SUMMARY: Corn futures are 5 to 6 cents higher at midday Tuesday; soybean futures are 13 to 15 cents higher; wheat futures are flat to 9 cents lower. The U.S. stock market is sharply higher with the DOW up 780 points. The U.S. Dollar Index is 120 points lower. Interest rate products are firmer. Energies are firmer with crude up 2.95, and natural gas is up .25. Livestock trade is weaker. Precious metals are firmer with gold up 32.00. CORN: Corn futures are 5 to 6 cents higher at midday with trade quiet in two-sided, rangebound. Prices are firming during the day session with action unable to sustain buying near the recent highs as harvest moves forward. Short-term forecasts have the center of the belt drier with warmer-than-normal temps over the next couple of weeks to keep harvest moving along. Progress on the weekly report showed good to excellent unchanged at 52%, 21% poor to very poor; 96% dented versus 97% on average; 75% mature, same as average; and 20% harvested versus 22% on average. The export wire will need to show more life soon with nothing in recent days. River issues remain notable for shipping. Ethanol margins will likely chop along with softer driving demand and refinery disruptions to keep upside limited for now. Basis will be watched to see how quickly we go to harvest footing everywhere and how aggressively the west will bid for corn in the deficit areas into early harvest with notable strength already, while intra-month spreads remain off the highs as shipping issues will limit the export market. On the December chart, trade is just above the 20-day moving average at $6.79 and the recent high at $6.95 above that with the lower Bollinger Band at $6.59 as further support. SOYBEANS: Soybean futures are 13 to 15 cents higher at midday with support from outside markets and light follow-through buying from the good start to the week as trade works to ease oversold conditions along with watching for fresh export demand with nothing on the daily wire Tuesday. Meal is $1.50 to $2.50 lower and oil is 165 to 185 points higher. Early planting is underway in South America with late demand picking up ahead of the U.S. export window. The dollar reversal needs to hold with Brazil in better shape than Argentina early on with varied short-term rain potential. Basis will continue to shift toward harvest footing with trade watching to see how quickly export shipments pick up into the end of the month with some further near-term basis pressure expected into October along with intramonth spread weakness adding carry in recent days along with areas of significant cash carry in river areas. The daily wire was quiet again after the small sale to start the week. Weekly crop progress showed conditions unchanged at 55% good to excellent, 16% poor to very poor; 81% dropping leaves versus 79% on average; 22% harvested versus 25% on average. On the November soybean chart, trade has the 20-day moving average at $14.27 as resistance well above the market, with the lower Bollinger band at $13.53 as support. WHEAT: Wheat futures are flat to 9 cents lower with KC action leading with the weaker dollar and dry Plains weather adding support nearby with little change to overall political situation in the Black Sea. But selling continues to return on tests of the upper end of the range, which has limited upside this morning. The Plains look dry short term, but enough recent rains fell in some areas to keep planting moving forward with 40% planted versus 44% last year, and 15% emerged versus 17% on average with spring harvest likely wrapped up. MATIF wheat remains near the upper end of the range with choppy action to start the week backing off the highs as well. The KC December chart has support at the 20-day moving average at $9.48, and the fresh high at $10.09 as resistance, which we faded from again. David Fiala can be reached at [email protected] Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (c) Copyright 2022 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.