DTN Midday Grain Comments 10/12 10:44

DTN Midday Grain Comments 10/12 10:44 Corn and Wheat Lower, Soybeans Higher Midday Wednesday Corn trade is 1 to 2 cents lower, beans are 2 to 4 cents higher and wheat is 6 to 10 cents lower. David M. Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst MARKET SUMMARY: The U.S. stock market is firmer with the Dow up 130 points. The U.S. Dollar Index is 7 points higher. Interest rate products are firmer. Energies are mixed with crude off 1.65, and natural gas is up 0.05. Livestock trade is mostly lower. Precious metals are weaker with gold 10.00 lower. CORN: Corn trade is 1 to 2 cents lower at midday with choppy pre-report trade continuing to work the upper end of the range. The WASDE report at 11 a.m. CDT is expected to show yields at 171.8 bushels per acre (bpa) vs 172.5 bpa last month, with carryout at 1.124 billion bushels (bb). Short term forecasts have the center of the belt drier with moderating temps to keep harvest moving along into mid-month with some areas rained out short term. The export wire will need to show more life soon with nothing in recent days with river issues helping to limit exports. Weekly crop progress showed harvest just ahead of the 5-year average at 31%, with 87% mature vs. 85% on average, and 54% good to excellent, up 2%, and 20% poor to very poor. Ethanol margins will likely chop along with softer driving demand and refinery disruptions to keep upside limited for now, but the recent stocks draw down will add support into mid-month with the weekly report delayed until Thursday. Basis will continue to see harvest and shipping pressure in the middle of the belt while bushels are bid for in the east. On the December chart, trade is just below the upper Bollinger Band at $6.98 with the 20-day below that at 6.81. SOYBEANS: Soybean trade is 2 to 4 cents higher with trade chopping along range-bound as well with rains to slow harvest pace in some areas and further direction from the report and outside markets expected later Wednesday. Meal is 2.00 to 3.00 higher, and oil is 55 to 65 points lower. The WASDE report is expected to show yield unchanged at 50.5 bpa, with carryout at 248 million bushels (mb) up 48 mb from last month. South America has early planting underway with mixed overall conditions and better in Brazil to start, while the U.S. dollar will likely remain a limiting factor short term. We did see China secure 526,000 metric tons of soybeans today. Basis will likely see further pressure as shipping issues and rising carry limit the need of processers to be aggressive even with solid crush margins. Weekly crop progress showed harvest 44% complete vs. 38% on average with 91% dropping leaves vs 88% on average, with conditions 2% better at 57% good to excellent and 16% poor to very poor. On the November soybean chart, trade has the 20-day at $14.08 as resistance well above the market, with the lower Bollinger band at 13.31 as support which we have held solidly above. WHEAT: Wheat trade is 6 to 10 cents lower at midday with trade easing overbought conditions. There is little fresh bullish news ahead of the report as trade fades a little further from the highs. The plains look dry short term, with further planting to continue while emergence is likely to struggle in many areas with planting at 55% vs. 58% on average, and emergence at 26% vs. 32% on average. MATIF wheat scored fresh highs for the move as well before fading as well with fewer fresh war developments the last couple of days. The WASDE report is expected to show wheat carryout at 554 mb vs. 610 mb in September. The KC December chart has support at the 20-day at $9.67, with action back below the upper Bollinger Band at $10.24 with a fresh high at $10.37 as further resistance. David Fiala can be reached at [email protected] Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (c) Copyright 2022 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.