DTN Midday Grain Comments 10/13 10:52

DTN Midday Grain Comments 10/13 10:52 Corn and Soybeans Slightly Down Midday Thursday Corn trade is 1 to 2 cents lower; beans are 3 to 5 cents lower and wheat is 16 to 18 cents higher. David M. Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst MARKET SUMMARY: Corn trade is 1 to 2 cents lower; beans are 3 to 5 cents lower and wheat is 16 to 18 cents higher. The U.S. stock market is firmer with the Dow up 370 points. The U.S. Dollar Index is 0.85 lower. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are firmer with crude up $1.35, and natural gas is up $0.20. Livestock trade is mostly lower. Precious metals are weaker with gold $12.00 lower. CORN: Corn trade is 1 to 2 cents lower Thursday with trade coming off post-inflation report lows as the dollar relaxed and fresh news remains scarce with harvest continuing to progress. The WASDE report showed yield at 171.9 bushels per acre versus 171.8 bpa expected and a carryout of 1.172 billion bushels versus 1.125 bb expected with world stocks at 301.2 million metric tons versus 301.8 mmt expected. Short-term forecasts have the center of the belt drier with moderating temps to keep harvest moving along into midmonth with drier weather returning after some midweek showers. The export wire will need to show more life soon with nothing in recent days and river issues helping to limit exports short term. Ethanol margins will likely chop along with softer driving demand and refinery disruptions to keep upside limited with production 43,000 barrels per day higher and stocks edging back up by 178,000 barrels. Basis will continue to see harvest and shipping pressure in the middle of the belt while bushels are bid for in the east. On the December chart, trade is just below the upper Bollinger Band at $6.99 with the 20-day below that at $6.81. SOYBEANS: Soybean trade is 3 to 5 cents lower at midday with trade holding most of the post report gains at midday with harvest pressure and a lack of other fresh bullish news besides a little better export action limiting upside for now. Meal is $3.00 to $4.00 lower and oil is 0.10 to 0.20 cent higher. The WASDE report showed yield at 49.8 bpa vs. 50.5 bpa expected with carryout unchanged at 200 million bushels versus 247 mb expected while world numbers were 100.5 million metric tons versus 100.0 mmt expected. South America has early planting underway with mixed overall conditions and better in Brazil to start, while the U.S. dollar will likely remain a limiting factor short term but we did see China secure another 264,000 metric tons Thursday with 242,000 mt to unknown while the full weekly report will be delayed until Friday. Basis will likely see further pressure as shipping issues and rising carry limit the need of processers to be aggressive even with solid crush margins. On the November soybean chart, trade has the 20-day at $14.06 as resistance, which we tested post report before fading, with the lower Bollinger Band at $13.33 as support, which we have held solidly above. WHEAT: Wheat trade is 16 to 18 cents higher at midday with trade bouncing back from the post-report test of support Wednesday with dry weather to continue for much of the Plains, along with the continued world issues as the grain corridor comes back into question and potentially damaging rains in Australia. The Plains look dry short term, with further planting to continue with emergence likely to struggle in many areas into the second half of the month. MATIF wheat scored fresh highs for the move as well before returning to consolidating action. The WASDE report showed wheat carryout at 576 million bushels versus 561 million expected, and world stocks were 267.5 million metric tons versus 267.8 million metric tons. The KC December chart has support at the 20-day at $9.69, with action back below the upper Bollinger Band at $10.19 with a fresh high at $10.37 as further resistance. David Fiala can be reached at [email protected] Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (c) Copyright 2022 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.